{"id":214968,"date":"2024-11-12T08:35:02","date_gmt":"2024-11-12T13:35:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=214968"},"modified":"2024-11-14T08:34:53","modified_gmt":"2024-11-14T13:34:53","slug":"chart-advisor-chasing-downside-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-chasing-downside-bets\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Chasing Downside Bets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Tom Bruni, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Pressing Upside Bets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Sellers Start Selling<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Pressing Downside Bets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Buyers Battle Back<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

5\/\u00a0When All Seems Lost\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pressing Upside Bets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the bull run continuing across risk assets, many market participants are feeling left behind, succumbing to \u201cFOMO\u201d<\/a> and pushing prices even higher. During this time, technical analysts can offer a friendly reminder to always think about where an asset has come from and where it has the potential to go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One way to measure this is by looking at a stock\u2019s price relative to its 200-day\u00a0simple moving average.<\/a>\u00a0That technical indicator measures a stock\u2019s long-term trend to where prices eventually tend to revert if they get too stretched from it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Below is a solid example of this using Palantir Technologies ($PLTR<\/a>). The stock recently broke out to new all-time highs via a \u201cbreakaway gap\u201d through its 2021 highs, a very bullish sign. However, the stock is now more than 110% above its 200-day moving average, exhibiting how \u201cstretched\u201d it is relative to its longer-term trend. This represents a potentially higher-risk environment for shares, as prices could \u201cmean revert\u201d<\/a> to their long-term trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This condition can resolve itself as a correction where prices fall to the moving average, or over time, where price growth slows and allows the moving average to catch up. The bulls would prefer the latter outcome, but for now, they\u2019re pushing through any potential downside risk and paying higher and higher prices for the red-hot stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sellers Start Selling<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One asset that was recently in a similarly stretched position relative to its 200-day moving average is gold ($GLD<\/a>). The precious metal broke out of a three-year base earlier this year and has been running higher aggressively, getting as much as 20% above its trend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With short-term momentum fading, traders and investors are eying several potential levels. The first is trendline support and the 50-day moving average near 2,625, while its long-term breakout level is between 2,050 and 2,100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, the market is still in an uptrend, but now buyers must decide how quickly they will step in and \u201cbuy the dip.\u201d On Stocktwits, retail investors and traders are currently \u2018bearish\u2019 on gold as the focus shifts towards assets (like crypto) with more upside momentum, suggesting more potential downside ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pressing Downside Bets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chasing prices to the upside isn\u2019t the only thing happening; traders and investors are chasing to the downside as well. Vaccine maker Moderna ($MRNA<\/a>) is a good example, as it hits 52-week lows and stretches nearly 60% from its 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Much like Palantir, one side of the market is clearly dominating this stock and is pressing their bets further. Eventually, shares will revisit their long-term trend, but sellers are betting on a consolidation rather than a major rally in prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With Stocktwits community sentiment hitting \u2018bullish\u2019 levels today, it appears some retail investors and traders have noticed how stretched the rubber band has gotten and are betting on a squeeze to the upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Buyers Battle Back<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, much like gold, Sprinklr, Inc. ($CXM<\/a>) is an example of a stock where the winning side of the market is punished for pressing its bets. Shares recently reclaimed their 2022 lows after falling 30% below their 200-day moving average, a level that\u2019s provided\u00a0support<\/a>\u00a0in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The productivity software small-cap stock currently has 7% of its float short, but the Stocktwits community is not yet betting on a\u00a0short squeeze.<\/a>\u00a0Sentiment remains \u2018bearish\u2019 despite shares rallying almost 10% today. Still, some say shorts are vulnerable to more pain ahead as buyers bet on further mean reversion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

When All Seems Lost\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, if it\u2019s tough to press bets in extended stocks or assets, what is a trader or investor to do in these assets? The answer may be to wait for a more attractive risk-to-reward opportunity, even if it takes a while to present itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


A great example of this in action is Bitcoin following its breakout in late 2021. The cryptocurrency rallied over 400% in the year after the breakout<\/a>, leaving many to believe they\u2019d never be able to get in at lower prices again. Flash forward a little more than a year and prices had corrected nearly 80%, bringing them right back to the original breakout level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now, that\u2019s not to say that will happen again this time. But the point is that market opportunities present themselves all of the time, just not in the timeframe we\u2019d like them to. Still, it\u2019s important to remain patient and wait for a risk-to-reward opportunity that aligns with our long-term goals, risk tolerance<\/a>, and overall investment objectives.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This perspective is important to keep, especially in today\u2019s environment where it feels like you\u2019re missing the boat on the next greatest trade or investment. Maybe you will, but history tells us that the boat will either tend to make another pass\u2026or another better boat will emerge. You just need to be patient. Stay safe out there, folks, and speculate responsibly!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—-
Originally posted 12th November 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Tom Bruni, CMT 1\/ Pressing Upside Bets 2\/ Sellers Start Selling 3\/ Pressing Downside Bets 4\/ Buyers Battle Back 5\/\u00a0When All Seems Lost\u2026 Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":214974,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,17,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[410,7622,2087,1488,748,10379],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-214968","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-futures","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-bitcoin","18":"tag-comex","19":"tag-gld","20":"tag-mrna","21":"tag-nyse","22":"tag-pltr","23":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: Chasing Downside Bets | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With the bull run continuing across risk assets, many market participants are feeling left behind, succumbing to\u00a0\u201cFOMO\u201d\u00a0and pushing prices even...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214968\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chart Advisor: Chasing Downside Bets | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With the bull run continuing across risk assets, many market participants are feeling left behind, succumbing to\u00a0\u201cFOMO\u201d\u00a0and pushing prices even higher. 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