{"id":214921,"date":"2024-11-11T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=214921"},"modified":"2024-11-15T14:10:02","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T19:10:02","slug":"still-some-gas-in-the-rally-tank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/still-some-gas-in-the-rally-tank\/","title":{"rendered":"Still some gas in the rally tank"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Last week’s huge post-election rally hasn’t run out of gas yet. The equity futures market makes it clear that there is more fuel in the tank to drive the indices farther at today’s open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 18 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 71 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 171 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There isn’t any “new” news feeding the positive bias. In effect, it is a carryover of the “old” news of the election outcome powering an ongoing momentum trade and a fear of missing out (“FOMO”) on further gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tesla (TSLA)<\/strong> is arguably the case study of this momentum\/FOMO trade. Since Election Day, TSLA has soared 28% and it is indicated up another 6.8% in pre-market action on no news. Bitcoin’s move above $80,000 is another move drawing a lot of attention as an election-momentum trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All that remains to be seen is when this rally effort runs out of gas. One can make a case that the market is short-term overbought, overvalued, and in need of a consolidation period, yet that case comes up short when momentum is on the market’s side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then, there is the added factor of favorable seasonality that leaves a lot of participants inclined to think any dip will be bought, inviting the thought that there isn’t any point in selling if stocks if they are just going to quickly rebound and extend their gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In brief, the onus is on the bears to wrest control of this market from the bulls, which have had it firmly in their grasp since the election outcome became clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Treasury market won’t be playing the role of referee today. It is closed for Veterans Day. There also isn’t any economic data of note today, yet that will change as the week continues with the October CPI Report on Wednesday, the October PPI Report on Thursday, and the October Retail Sales Report on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted November 11, 2024 – Still some gas in the rally tank<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last week’s huge post-election rally hasn’t run out of gas yet. 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