{"id":214681,"date":"2024-11-05T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=214681"},"modified":"2024-11-06T04:12:32","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T09:12:32","slug":"trump-odds-rally-on-election-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/trump-odds-rally-on-election-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Odds Rally on Election Day: Nov. 5, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Stocks are buoyant on election day alongside rising probabilities of former President Trump<\/a> reclaiming the Oval Office. Our IBKR Forecast Trader participants are currently assigning a 58% chance of 45\u2019s return to the White House. The path for Vice President Harris is indeed narrower, as absent a major surprise, she can\u2019t reach 270 electoral points without taking either Pennsylvania<\/a>, North Carolina<\/a> or Georgia<\/a>, states where her opponent sports 61%, 64% and 64% likelihoods of victory, according to IBKR Forecast Contract players. To complicate matters further for the Democrats, Harris is also trailing in Arizona<\/a> and Nevada<\/a> by wide margins, essentially requiring her to post huge upsets in jurisdictions where she\u2019s the longshot candidate. But GOP enthusiasm has decelerated in response to projections for Congress as investors in our marketplace now expect a split legislative body with Republicans claiming a Senate<\/a> majority while Democrats flip the House<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"2024<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Services Accelerate Sharply, Boosting Economic Optimism<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Services sectors, which comprise the majority of stateside economic activity, accelerated sharply last month, according to ISM\u2019s Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) benchmark strengthened from 54.9 last month to 56.0, the highest level since July 2022 and arrived well above the median estimate of 53.8. It is the fourth-consecutive month of advancement, signaled by a figure above 50. One noteworthy category was employment activity, which jumped 4.9 percentage points to 53.0. Analysts anticipated 48.1. After the number declined in September, employers said they are hiring to address attrition and holiday peak activity. Some commented that they are having difficulty with backfilling positions. The development is quelling concerns related to last Friday\u2019s huge miss on nonfarm payrolls and is sending yields north. The following categories, while moderating, remained well above the expansion threshold:<\/p>\n\n\n\n