{"id":214622,"date":"2024-11-04T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=214622"},"modified":"2024-11-05T03:56:48","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T08:56:48","slug":"nvidia-to-the-dow-yawn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nvidia-to-the-dow-yawn\/","title":{"rendered":"Nvidia to the Dow.\u00a0 Yawn\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>One of the most widely discussed market topics this morning is that Nvidia (NVDA) will be replacing Intel (INTC) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU).&nbsp; My reaction: so what?&nbsp; We shouldn\u2019t care very much about an anachronism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite its flaws and relative lack of relevance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains widely referenced.&nbsp; It\u2019s understandable why the non-financial media might continue to define stock market movements with this historical benchmark, but it continues to play a key role in financial media reporting. &nbsp;Faithful readers will notice that I almost never mention the Dow.&nbsp; Years ago, I wrote a piece entitled \u201cIt\u2019s Time to Retire the Dow\u201d, and I stand by that opinion.&nbsp; (Unfortunately, I can\u2019t link to it \u2013 several years ago we revamped our website and older articles were lost.)&nbsp; My reasoning was and is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>INDU not actually an index \u2013 it\u2019s an average.\u00a0 That reflects the technology available to its eponymous creator, Charles Dow, in 1896.\u00a0 In 1884 he created the Dow Jones Transportation Average to predominantly track railroad stocks, the \u201chigh tech\u201d sector of that time, though it included Western Union and a Steamship Company.\u00a0 Prior to Mr. Dow\u2019s innovation, there was no easy way to define whether the \u201cmarket\u201d was up or down.\u00a0 He created a measure that could be calculated with a pencil and paper \u2013 an arithmetic average.\u00a0 Like the Transportation Average, INDU originally had 12 stocks, and the number of components was only raised to 30 in 1928, near the end of the \u201cRoaring Twenties\u201d.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0The periodic additions and subtractions to the index are meant to reflect the index committee\u2019s best estimate of a small portfolio that represents the US market, but that means it is both narrow and arbitrary.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Because INDU is actually an average, it is therefore price-weighted, not market capitalization weighted.\u00a0\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"color: initial\">There is a reason why most major global indices, including the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX), use the latter technique.\u00a0\u00a0 The computer age allows us to continuously multiply a stock\u2019s price times its shares outstanding and then divide the sum of those calculations to create an index.\u00a0 The more money invested in a company, the bigger its weight.\u00a0 It\u2019s fair to argue whether some of these indices have gotten too top-heavy, but that reflects the market\u2019s love for mega-cap stocks, not the index construction.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Because an average is calculated by simply summing the component\u2019s prices and then dividing the sum, it becomes price-weighted.\u00a0 The higher a stock\u2019s price, the larger its weight in the calculation.\u00a0 To my mind, that is essentially random-weighted.\u00a0 UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and Goldman Sachs (GS) have the two highest weights in INDU by virtue of their $500+ stock prices.\u00a0 That gives them nearly 12x the weight of $41 Verizon (VZ).\u00a0 This is despite GS and VZ having nearly identical market capitalizations of around $170 billion.\u00a0 Does that make sense to you?\u00a0 Apple, which is the largest US company by market capitalization, is currently #12, just behind Travelers (TRV) and ahead of JPMorgan (JPM).\u00a0 When NVDA and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) are included next week, SHW will have nearly 3x the weight of NVDA despite the semiconductor company having about 36x the market cap of the paint company and seemingly an infinite more mindshare.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Follow the money.\u00a0 The market has voted as to which type of index construction it prefers, and there is FAR more money invested in products that track SPX and NDX than INDU.\u00a0 The only significant ETF that tracks INDU is DIA, which has assets of about $35bn.\u00a0 SPY and VOO, which track SPX, each have over $500bn.\u00a0 And the gulf widens even further when we include mutual and pension funds.\u00a0 The amount indexed to INDU is a relative pittance.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>It is noteworthy when a well-followed market measure changes its composition, especially when it does that infrequently.&nbsp; But when it comes to real-world importance for the affected stocks, it is a relatively meaningless decision from an increasingly irrelevant metric.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the most widely discussed market topics this morning is that Nvidia (NVDA) will be replacing Intel (INTC) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU).\u00a0 My reaction: so what?\u00a0 We shouldn\u2019t care very much about an anachronism.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":214623,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[2479,8235,44],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-214622","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-dow-jones","15":"tag-nvidia","16":"tag-stocks","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/11\/dow-jones-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=214622"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214622\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/214623"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=214622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=214622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=214622"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=214622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}