{"id":214594,"date":"2024-11-04T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=214594"},"modified":"2024-11-05T03:56:21","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T08:56:21","slug":"volatility-is-on-tap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/volatility-is-on-tap\/","title":{"rendered":"Volatility is on tap"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Welcome to the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>There is an election on Tuesday with many reports\/polls indicating it is too close to call.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Iran has threatened a strong and complex attack against Israel, according to\u00a0<em>The Wall Street Journal<\/em>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to cut the target range by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75% at Thursday&#8217;s FOMC meeting.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China&#8217;s National People&#8217;s Congress will take place November 4-8 amid hope Chinese officials will announce new stimulus measures.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There will be a $58 billion 3-yr note auction today, a $42 billion 10-yr note auction Tuesday, and a $25 billion 30-yr bond auction Wednesday.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>OPEC announced an agreement to extend the 2.2 mbd voluntary adjustments until the end of December 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)<\/strong>\u00a0reported its Q3 results, showing a whopping $325.2 billion cash position and a sizable reduction in its stake in\u00a0<strong>Apple (AAPL)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>NVIDIA (NVDA)<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>Sherwin-Williams (SHW)<\/strong>\u00a0will be replacing\u00a0<strong>Intel (INTC)<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>Dow Inc. (DOW)<\/strong>\u00a0in the Dow Jones Industrial Average prior to the open November 8.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The\u00a0<strong>Boeing (BA)<\/strong>\u00a0machinists union will be voting today on a new contract proposal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Over 100 S&amp;P 500 companies will report earnings results this week.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>And&#8230;. exhale! There is a lot to take in, and we haven&#8217;t even hit the opening bell. It is understandable that the equity futures market would be transfixed with so much on tap &#8212; and it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are up four points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down eight points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 37 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While there isn&#8217;t much early movement in the equity market, there has been some notable movement in the Treasury market that is garnering some extra attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consider: Iran is threatening a strong attack on Israel, OPEC is sticking with output cuts longer than expected, there is looming new supply with a $58 billion 3-yr note auction&#8230; and yields are lower?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2-yr note yield is down six basis points to 4.14% and the 10-yr note yield is down eight basis points to 4.28%. The drop in yields is counter-intuitive for the headlines just mentioned, yet it comes into focus amid reports that traders are tempering their expectations for an election sweep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both candidates have put forward plans that will increase the national debt by trillions of dollars over the next 10 years if they are enacted, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, but the implementation of those plans won&#8217;t be easy without either presidential candidate having a mandate in Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Treasuries have been traded in a volatile manner of late, with an upward bias in yields. While yields are lower now, that may not be the case by the end of the session; nonetheless, the election view seems to be the only one that fits at the moment as an explanation for the early gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In any case, volatility is on tap this week for all capital markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted November 4, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">Volatility is on tap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> There is a lot to take in, and we haven&#8217;t even hit the opening bell. It is understandable that the equity futures market would be transfixed with so much on tap &#8212; and it is.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1294,3598,860],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":{"0":"post-214594","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-market-open","13":"tag-market-outlook","14":"tag-volatility","15":"contributors-categories-briefing-com"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Volatility is on tap | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There is a lot to take in, and we haven&#039;t even hit the opening bell. 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