{"id":214562,"date":"2024-11-01T12:56:11","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T16:56:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=214562"},"modified":"2024-11-04T03:52:09","modified_gmt":"2024-11-04T08:52:09","slug":"market-takes-a-mulligan-and-looks-to-jobs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/market-takes-a-mulligan-and-looks-to-jobs\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Takes a Mulligan and Looks to Jobs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As a lousy golfer, I\u2019m a big fan of mulligans. For those readers who don\u2019t torture themselves on weekends or spoil long walks on grassy knolls, a mulligan is when a golfer replays a shot without penalty. In effect, a do-over.\u00a0But they\u2019re only allowed in casual play, not when the score matters.\u00a0Every day counts in stock markets, however, but equity markets seem to be giving themselves a mulligan for yesterday\u2019s declines anyway.\u00a0The fact that it\u2019s the first of the month and a Friday are almost certainly having an impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The nominal reason for today\u2019s rally is the weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report. October payrolls rose by only 12,000 \u2013 well below the 100k consensus \u2013 and the two-month revision was for -112k, 31k of which was for September\u2019s report.\u00a0That certainly seems to solidify the notion that the labor economy is weakening, thus opening the door for more aggressive rate cuts, even though the Bureau of Labor Statistics acknowledged that the number was likely affected by hurricanes and strikes.\u00a0We saw bond yields fall sharply in the immediate aftermath, with the 2-year note yield down as much as 10 basis points and the 10-year falling by 5bp.\u00a0Yet as we approach midday, the 2-year yield is up 1bp and the 10-year is up 6bp to 4.33%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are some who believe that 10-year yields above 4.3% would be a big negative for stocks.\u00a0In theory, I don\u2019t disagree.\u00a0Higher yields provide competition for stocks and impede long-term valuations.\u00a0But in at least in the short-term, those folks must have missed the memo about\u00a0every dip being a buying opportunity<\/a>.\u00a0While there is a heavy degree of sarcasm in the prior sentence, it reflects the current equity trading mindset.\u00a0If there is any reason whatsoever to bounce, equities will attempt to do so and traders will attempt to chase the rally for a while.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One reason for the bounce is the calendar.\u00a0Many traders assume that new money flows into the market on the first day of a new month, and when combined with the largest decline in the S&P 500 (SPX) since early September, that seemed like a good enough reason to get overnight futures higher.\u00a0And it\u2019s much easier to base a day\u2019s trading off the bond market\u2019s initial reaction to an economic report rather than shift strategy when the bond traders do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember also that today is Friday, a day when we have over 600 so-called 0DTE options.\u00a0On most days we only have a handful of index and ETF options that expire; on Fridays, hundreds of the most popular single-stock options also expire.\u00a0Expiring options have become a popular means for traders to chase and accelerate rallies, especially since 2021, when we first\u00a0explained the phenomenon<\/a>.\u00a0The rally seems to be taking a lunch break right now; let\u2019s see whether there is another push in the afternoon or some pre-weekend book squaring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would be understandable if we see some book squaring into the close.\u00a0A deeper read of today\u2019s employment report is not uniformly market friendly.\u00a0The Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%, implying that there is neither a surge in newly jobless workers, nor a rush back into the labor force from those on the sidelines.\u00a0It also calls into question the recent triggering of the \u201cSahm Rule.\u201d\u00a0Furthermore, Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.4% on a monthly basis, above the 0.3% consensus.\u00a0That was offset by a downward revision of last month\u2019s report, from 0.4% to 0.3%, but either way, consistent readings in the 0.3-0.4% range are not consistent with a 2% inflation target.\u00a0That\u2019s why Fed Funds expectations only moved up slightly.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Have a good weekend and get the most of your extra hour of sleep (we push clocks back in North America).\u00a0Next week\u2019s election will of course be the thing to watch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Every day counts in stock markets, however, but equity markets seem to be giving themselves a mulligan for yesterday\u2019s declines anyway.\u00a0The fact that it\u2019s the first of the month and a Friday are almost certainly having an 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/11\/stock-market-golf-mulligan.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=214562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214562\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/214565"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=214562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=214562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=214562"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=214562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}