{"id":214502,"date":"2024-10-31T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=214502"},"modified":"2024-11-04T11:32:06","modified_gmt":"2024-11-04T16:32:06","slug":"feds-favorite-inflation-metric-accelerates-in-september-personal-income-rises-more-than-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/feds-favorite-inflation-metric-accelerates-in-september-personal-income-rises-more-than-expected\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed&#8217;s Favorite Inflation Metric Accelerates In September, Personal Income Rises More Than Expected"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">ZINGER KEY POINTS<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Core PCE inflation rose 2.7% year-over-year in September, slightly above forecasts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fed&#8217;s next rate cut appears secure, but December&#8217;s cut may face potential pushback amid persistent underlying inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders faced an unwelcome Halloween threat on Thursday as the Federal Reserve\u2019s favored inflation measure accelerated, raising some concerns on the likelihood of back-to-back interest rate cuts going into the final two monetary policy&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/econ-s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">meetings of the year.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The PCE price index rose 2.1% year-over-year, in line with analyst forecasts. Yet the core PCE index \u2014 which strips out volatile food and energy prices and gives a better indication of underlying price pressures \u2014 rose 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latter stronger-than-expected inflation figure could keep the Fed on alert as it weighs its next policy moves. While a 25-basis-point rate cut at next week&#8217;s Fed meeting is widely seen as a done deal as per the CME FedWatch tool, market expectations for another cut in December could face some setbacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Personal Income And Outlays Report For September: Key Highlights<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month in September, matching the predicted 0.2% and accelerating from the previous 0.1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The core PCE price index rose 0.3% from the previous month, accelerating from 0.1% and matching estimates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On an annual basis, the headline PCE price index surged 2.1%, down from August\u2019s upwardly revised 2.3%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The core PCE price index held at 2.7% year-over-year, as in August.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Personal income increased by $71.6 billion, or 0.3%, in September, matching expectations of 0.3% and above the previous month\u2019s 0.2% growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Personal saving&nbsp;rate eased from 4.8% to 4.6%, with personal savings down from $1.05 trillion to $1 trillion in September.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Personal spending increased by $105.8 billion, or 0.5%, surpassing estimates of 0.4% and accelerating from the previous 0.2%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Reactions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets showed minimal reaction to the latest PCE inflation report, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Treasury yields were steady, with the 2-year yield, sensitive to rate changes, holding at 4.17%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As of 8:50 a.m. in New York, S&amp;P 500 futures were down 0.6%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts also dipped by 0.6%. Yet, both held broadly steady after the inflation data release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted October 30, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/economics\/macro-economic-events\/24\/10\/41652469\/feds-favorite-inflation-metric-accelerates-in-september-personal-income-rises-mor\">Fed&#8217;s Favorite Inflation Metric Accelerates In September, Personal Income Rises More Than Expected<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Core PCE inflation rose 2.7% year-over-year in September, slightly above forecasts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,570,1685,12337,62],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-214502","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-fed","13":"tag-inflation","14":"tag-macro","15":"tag-personal-income","16":"tag-rates","17":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - 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