{"id":214128,"date":"2024-10-23T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-23T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=214128"},"modified":"2024-11-04T11:21:06","modified_gmt":"2024-11-04T16:21:06","slug":"what-the-options-market-is-expecting-for-tesla-earnings-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-the-options-market-is-expecting-for-tesla-earnings-3\/","title":{"rendered":"What the Options Market is Expecting for Tesla Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It seems like we just wrote a piece of this type, and it turns out we had.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-robotaxi-is-scheduled-to-arrive-tomorrow\/\">Two weeks ago<\/a> we examined options pricing ahead of Tesla\u2019s (TSLA) robotaxi announcement, noting that the market was treating it much like an earnings report.&nbsp; Considering that the stock fell nearly 9% after that event, the TSLA faithful are hoping for a better result after today\u2019s close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Based upon its performance so far this year, TSLA has not just justified its inclusion as part of the so-called \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d.&nbsp; It is about -13% lower on a year-to-date basis.&nbsp; The other six stocks are all higher, with Microsoft\u2019s (MSFT) +15% offering the weakest performance of the rest.&nbsp; (For the record, in January <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/magnificent-seven-may-need-a-roster-change\/\">we advocated replacing<\/a> TSLA with Broadcom (AVGO) in the Mag 7.&nbsp; The latter stock is up about 60% ytd.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We recently noted that the stock\u2019s performance can be divided into two phases: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-two-eras-of-tesla-bt-and-ax\/\">BT (Before Twitter) and AX (After X<\/a>).&nbsp; If we choose the deal\u2019s closing date as a start date, the stock\u2019s performance has been lackluster at best (down about -3%). If we start from the deal\u2019s announcement date, the performance has been downright lousy (down about -33%).&nbsp; It is no wonder that the mentality surrounding TSLA earnings has changed.&nbsp; Just ahead of its report <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/options-market-expectations-for-tesla-earnings\/\">in January we noted<\/a> that there was little risk aversion priced into the options.&nbsp; Since then, that hasn\u2019t been the case \u2013 including today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For starters, the IBKR Probability Lab for TSLA options expiring this Friday shows a peak in the $207.5-$212.5 range, a bit below the current $215.36:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-i-bkr-probability-lab-for-tsla-options-expiring-october-25-th-2024\">I<strong><em>BKR Probability Lab for TSLA Options Expiring October 25<sup>th<\/sup>, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"390\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture3-4.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for TSLA Options Expiring October 25th, 2024\" class=\"wp-image-214131 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture3-4.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture3-4-700x292.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture3-4-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture3-4-768x320.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/390;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interestingly, at money weekly options are pricing in a roughly 7.5% post earnings move.&nbsp; That seems low, considering that the past seven TSLA earnings reports resulted in either double digit percentage moves or something just shy (-12.33%, +12.06%, -12.13%, -9.3%, -9.74%, -9.75%, +10.97%).&nbsp; It is also sobering to note that only one of the last six, and two of the last seven reports have resulted in upward moves.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-skews-for-tsla-options-expiring-october-25-th-dark-blue-november-1-st-light-blue-and-november-15-th-yellow\"><strong><em>Skews for TSLA Options Expiring October 25<sup>th<\/sup> (dark blue), November 1<sup>st<\/sup> (light blue), and November 15<sup>th<\/sup> (yellow)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"432\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture2-9.png\" alt=\"Skews for TSLA Options Expiring October 25th (dark blue), November 1st (light blue), and November 15th (yellow)\" class=\"wp-image-214130 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture2-9.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture2-9-700x323.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture2-9-300x138.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture2-9-768x354.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/432;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a bit of an odd W shape to the skew of this week\u2019s options, with a bit of an implied volatility bump for at-money options compared to those just out-of-the-money in both directions.&nbsp; The downside skew for that expiry is very pronounced, however.&nbsp; It seems to reflect a concern that a break below current levels could be significant, as the chart below (using the new advanced TWS charting feature) shows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tsla-6-months-daily-candles-top-with-macd-12-26-9-bottom\"><strong><em>TSLA, 6-Months Daily Candles (top) with MACD (12,26,9, bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"646\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture1-18.png\" alt=\"TSLA, 6-Months Daily Candles (top) with MACD (12,26,9, bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-214129 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture1-18.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture1-18-700x483.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture1-18-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Picture1-18-768x530.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/646;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>There is an important feature to keep in mind.&nbsp; Options pricing can often be a contrarian indicator.&nbsp; If everyone is nervous, then the result can be benign, and vice versa.&nbsp; Today\u2019s setup into TSLA earnings somehow simultaneously shows a bit of concern (probability, skews) and a relative lack thereof (at-money volatility).&nbsp; We\u2019ll learn who is correct soon enough.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It seems like we just wrote a piece of this type, and it turns out we had.  Two weeks ago we examined options pricing ahead of Tesla\u2019s (TSLA) robotaxi announcement, noting that the market was treating it much like an earnings report.  Considering that the stock fell nearly 9% after that event, the TSLA faithful are hoping for a better result after today\u2019s close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":184228,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1926,161],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-214128","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-options","15":"tag-tesla","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What the Options Market is Expecting for Tesla Earnings<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It seems like we just wrote a piece of this type, and it turns out we had. 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