{"id":213999,"date":"2024-10-21T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-21T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=213999"},"modified":"2024-10-22T03:39:27","modified_gmt":"2024-10-22T07:39:27","slug":"weaker-but-not-weak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weaker-but-not-weak\/","title":{"rendered":"Weaker but not weak"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The equity futures market is under some selling pressure to begin the week. Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 82 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 48 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The weaker (but not weak) disposition is flowing from a posture of strength in the major indices that has invited some selling interest after some big gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A bump in Treasury yields, geopolitical angst, and election uncertainty are garnering some attribution as proximate causes for the early weakness. Another component, arguably, is the recognition in sentiment readings that bullishness among fund managers is high and cash levels are relatively low, which is the right mix for contrarian-minded selling interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.99% and the 10-yr note yield is up six basis points to 4.13%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No matter how one looks at things this morning, the overarching point is that there still isn&#8217;t a rush for the exits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Losses at the open will be on the modest side of things, likely because there are enough participants who recognize that this bull market has feasted on buy-the-dip opportunities. Accordingly, there is a bit of a wait-and-see mentality that is keeping selling efforts in check, as participants wait to see if that buy-the-dip approach wins out again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is also a bit of wait-and-see thinking in front of a busy week of earnings reporting that will include reports from more than 100 S&amp;P 500 companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That will include Dow component&nbsp;<strong>Boeing (BA)<\/strong>, which reports before Wednesday&#8217;s open. The aircraft manufacturer is in the news today, however, after the IAM and Boeing negotiated a resolution contract that will face a ratification vote on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boeing is sharing some of the corporate spotlight with&nbsp;<strong>Cigna (CI)<\/strong>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<strong>Humana (HUM)<\/strong>, which are getting engaged again in merger talks, according to&nbsp;<em>Bloomberg<\/em>, and&nbsp;<strong>Walt Disney (DIS)<\/strong>, which named James P. Gorman as Chairman of the Board, effective January 2, 2025, and said it plans to announce Disney&#8217;s next CEO in early 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This news follows alongside macro developments that include Israel taking aim at Hezbollah&#8217;s financial arm in Lebanon, and the People&#8217;s Bank of China cutting its 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates by 25 basis points to 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively. Those cuts were larger than the 20 basis points expected by the market and at the upper end of Governor Pan&#8217;s view that they would be on the order of 20-25 basis points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted October 21, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">Weaker but not weak<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The weaker (but not weak) disposition is flowing from a posture of strength in the major indices that has invited some selling interest after some big gains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14020,1294,3598],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":{"0":"post-213999","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-market-brief","13":"tag-market-open","14":"tag-market-outlook","15":"contributors-categories-briefing-com"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weaker but not weak | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The weaker (but not weak) disposition is flowing from a posture of strength in the major indices that has invited some selling interest after some big...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213999\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weaker but not weak | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The weaker (but not weak) disposition is flowing from a posture of strength in the major indices that has invited some selling interest after some big gains.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weaker-but-not-weak\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-21T13:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-22T07:39:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick J. 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