{"id":213894,"date":"2024-10-17T09:11:27","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T13:11:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=213894"},"modified":"2024-10-18T03:40:46","modified_gmt":"2024-10-18T07:40:46","slug":"chart-advisor-election-season-seasonality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-election-season-seasonality\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Election Season Seasonality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By\u00a0<strong>Ryan Redfern, CMT, ChFC<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1\/ Election Season Seasonality<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2\/ Improving Sector Strength\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>3\/ Healthcare Drama\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1\">1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Election Season Seasonality<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Election Season in the US is already upon us, and I thought it would be worth noting what the S&amp;P500 usually does around (before and after) the big day.&nbsp; This Seasonax chart shows the average movement of the index around the last 3 US presidential elections \u2013 30 days before and 30 days after.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is that a small sample size?&nbsp; Yes.&nbsp; Yes it is.&nbsp; However, each of those last 3 had vastly different outcomes and markets around election day, so looking at the average of these 3 is surprisingly interesting.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This chart suggests that about 14 days before the election, the S&amp;P500 tends to peak before a short-term sell-off.&nbsp; That puts a possible peak on or around October 22nd.&nbsp; As I said early in the week, it\u2019s not so much a signal but a heads-up. If other factors agree on or around this date, then I\u2019m very interested in either reducing equity exposure or adding inverse funds for a short-term hedge.&nbsp; Always refer back to your trading plan for appropriate action.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But in any case, what is even more interesting is the overwhelmingly positive bias after the election.&nbsp; Something to look forward to if other signals agree.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"406\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10171-2-1100x406.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-213897 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10171-2-1100x406.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10171-2-700x258.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10171-2-300x111.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10171-2-768x284.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10171-2-1536x567.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10171-2.png 1920w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/406;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Courtesy of Seasonax<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2\">2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Improving Sector Strength\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sector DMIs are now showing Positive 10 to Negative 1, up one from yesterday.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the positive\/buyers side, we have 10: (XLB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLY). These are largely made up of the sectors you would think of as market leaders \u2013 Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary.&nbsp; And Energy changed sides, strengthening the \u201cbull\u201d case.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the negative\/sellers side, we have 1: (XLV only).&nbsp; \u201cAnd then there was only one,\u201d and that one weak sector is Healthcare.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Writing for this newsletter had me thinking about other ways to look at this sector list.&nbsp; What if I also look at the sum of the weighting of each sector?&nbsp; Since there is only one on the negative side, today\u2019s is a straightforward calculation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Positive Sectors weighted:&nbsp;&nbsp; 88.5%&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Negative Sectors weighted:&nbsp; 11.5%&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Interesting.&nbsp; I\u2019ll be spending more time with this concept in the future.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"624\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10172-1100x624.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-213898 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/624;width:950px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10172-1100x624.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10172-700x397.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10172-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10172-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10172-1536x872.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10172.png 1920w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Courtesy of Optuma<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3\">3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Healthcare Drama<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is wrong with Healthcare (XLV)?&nbsp; All the other sectors of the S&amp;P500 are behaving, so what\u2019s up?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since the big spike on September 1st the chart is stair-stepping lower with lower highs and lower lows.&nbsp; It even looks like it tried to move into the Blue (Improving) RRG box but quickly failed.&nbsp; I would expect it to possibly make the next step down to a lower low, somewhere around the 148 level if the moves stay symmetrical (noted by the vertical lines).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The white ADX line is still in decline \u2013 suggesting there is no clear trend, even with DI- over DI+.&nbsp; Possibility #2 is it just chops sideways, pulled up by the strength from the rest of the market.&nbsp; But I think that\u2019s less likely.&nbsp; If the ADX line does turn upward, then I\u2019ll be watching for which direction the breakout might go.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"777\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10173-1100x777.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-213899 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/777;width:950px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10173-1100x777.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10173-700x495.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10173-300x212.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10173-768x543.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10173-1536x1086.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10173.png 1862w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Courtesy of Optuma<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<br>Originally posted 17th October 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Ryan Redfern, CMT, ChFC 1\/ Election Season Seasonality 2\/ Improving Sector Strength\u00a0 3\/ Healthcare Drama\u00a0 Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":213900,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[9864,669,1058,1049,2223,2006,2546,1302,1322,3855,1323,219,1283],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":["post-213894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-etfs","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-technical-analysis","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-adx","tag-spdr","tag-xlb","tag-xlc","tag-xle","tag-xlf","tag-xli","tag-xlk","tag-xlp","tag-xlre","tag-xlu","tag-xlv","tag-xly","contributors-categories-investopedia"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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elections \u2013 30 days before and 30 days after.\u00a0Is that a small sample size?\u00a0 Yes.\u00a0 Yes it is.\u00a0 However, each of those last 3 had vastly different outcomes and markets around election day, so looking at the average of these 3 is surprisingly interesting.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-election-season-seasonality\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-17T13:11:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-18T07:40:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10172-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1090\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" 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