{"id":213826,"date":"2024-10-16T08:52:33","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T12:52:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=213826"},"modified":"2024-10-17T03:43:46","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T07:43:46","slug":"chart-advisor-evaluating-the-semiconductor-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-evaluating-the-semiconductor-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Evaluating the Semiconductor Change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By\u00a0<strong>Ryan Redfern, CMT, ChFC<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1\/ Did I Nail That or What?!?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2\/ Recheck the Count\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3\/ Upside Down &#8211; Inverted \u201cDucks\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4\/ Modified \u201cEarly Warning\u201d MACD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1\">1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Did I Nail That or What?!?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m not sure I could have picked a worse index to highlight in yesterday\u2019s update.&nbsp; But the Semiconductor sector got crushed after showing so much promise.&nbsp; The quote \u201cEverybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth\u201d from Mike Tyson comes to mind on days like this.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But wait, I did have a plan and was able to cut my losses and still make a small gain.&nbsp; Let\u2019s review the SMH chart again and I\u2019ll show you why.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Each time SMH is near a high and has a dramatic sell-off, there tends to be a short-term top happening.&nbsp; And it doesn\u2019t tend to revisit those highs until after further movement downward.&nbsp; In semiconductors, at least seven of these \u201ctops\u201d occurred just this year, so maybe the trade is done for now.&nbsp; But, anything can happen.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"454\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10161-1100x454.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-213827 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10161-1100x454.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10161-700x289.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10161-300x124.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10161-768x317.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10161-1536x634.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10161.png 1920w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/454;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Courtesy of Optuma<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2\">2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Recheck the Count\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With some dramatic selling happening in parts of the market yesterday, is the financial world now finally coming to an end?&nbsp; To answer that, I\u2019d better revisit the count of the S&amp;P500 sectors using DMI as shown yesterday.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Huh.&nbsp; No changes.&nbsp; Sector DMIs are still showing Positive 9 to Negative 2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the positive\/buyers side, we have 9: (XLB, XLC, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLY). These are largely made up of the sectors you would think of as market leaders \u2013 Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the negative\/sellers side, we have 2: (XLE, XLV). These include an interesting mix of defensive and cyclical names.&nbsp; But this list is slim at the moment, so overall, there\u2019s not much to be concerned about just yet.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Something else that jumped out to me on today\u2019s list is that XLC (Communication) held up well while the rest of the \u201cTech\u201d and \u201cSemis\u201d fell off a cliff.&nbsp; I\u2019ll be keeping an eye on that as one of the places I could rotate into next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"608\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10162-1100x608.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-213828 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10162-1100x608.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10162-700x387.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10162-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10162-768x424.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10162-1536x849.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10162.png 1864w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/608;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Courtesy of Optuma<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3\">3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Upside Down &#8211; Inverted \u201cDucks\u201d<\/strong> \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I mentioned on Monday, I think of the data points on Julius de Kempenaer\u2019s RRG charts as \u201cducks\u201d swimming around a \u201cpond.\u201d&nbsp; And when you watch it long enough, you can start to sense where they might go next.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another way I like to look at the state of broad market indexes is to look at a basket of Inverse (or \u201cShort\u201d) funds for 10 of the major markets:&nbsp; Russell 2000, S&amp;P500, NASDAQ100, Emerging Markets, Developed Markets, High Yield, 10- and 20-year Treasuries and even Bitcoin for good measure.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What we\u2019re potentially seeing now is this group of indexes starting to swim up into the \u201cImproving\u201d quadrant \u2013 with the two inverse Treasury Indexes out into the Leading area (which is no surprise as they\u2019ve been falling steadily since the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What comes next?&nbsp; Maybe there is something more to yesterday\u2019s market volatility than meets the eye.&nbsp; At least, that\u2019s where these \u201cducks\u201d seem to be heading.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"781\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10163-1100x781.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-213829 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10163-1100x781.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10163-700x497.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10163-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10163-768x546.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10163-1536x1091.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10163.png 1864w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/781;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Courtesy of Optuma<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-4\">4\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Modified \u201cEarly Warning\u201d MACD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One thing I can never seem to do is leave well enough alone.&nbsp; I can\u2019t just leave indicators in \u201cstandard\u201d settings when any number or number combinations are possible.&nbsp; So this one is fun, and something I\u2019ve found useful in my \u201cearly warning\u201d toolkit.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My favorite is a Fibonacci MACD using 8,21,5 (instead of the standard 12,26,9). I\u2019ve always had this tendency to look at charts and indicators with numbers from the Fibonacci series.&nbsp; And in reality (and practice) it isn\u2019t that much different than the traditional MACD settings, except that it does tend to have crossovers one bar earlier \u2013 before everyone else is getting their signals.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other uses for Fib numbers on charts:&nbsp; Using 5 on a daily chart represents one week of trading.&nbsp; Using 21 on a daily chart represents one month.&nbsp; Using a 55ma instead of the 50ma everyone else is using just feels\u2026right.&nbsp; Ooooo so elegant.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"915\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10164-1100x915.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-213830 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10164-1100x915.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10164-700x582.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10164-300x249.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10164-768x639.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10164.png 1496w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/915;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Courtesy of Optuma<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<br>Originally posted 16th October 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Ryan Redfern, CMT, ChFC 1\/ Did I Nail That or What?!? 2\/ Recheck the Count\u00a0 3\/ Upside Down &#8211; Inverted \u201cDucks\u201d 4\/ Modified \u201cEarly Warning\u201d MACD Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":213832,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,15,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[410,187,1081,669,1058,1049,2223,2006,2546,1302,1322,3855,1323,219,1283],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-213826","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-bitcoin","18":"tag-macd","19":"tag-nasdaq-100","20":"tag-spdr","21":"tag-xlb","22":"tag-xlc","23":"tag-xle","24":"tag-xlf","25":"tag-xli","26":"tag-xlk","27":"tag-xlp","28":"tag-xlre","29":"tag-xlu","30":"tag-xlv","31":"tag-xly","32":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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short-term top happening.\u00a0 And it doesn\u2019t tend to revisit those highs until after further movement downward.\u00a0 In semiconductors, at least seven of these \u201ctops\u201d occurred just this year, so maybe the trade is done for now.\u00a0 But, anything can happen.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-evaluating-the-semiconductor-change\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-16T12:52:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-17T07:43:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/10161-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"793\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" 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