{"id":213661,"date":"2024-10-14T11:39:02","date_gmt":"2024-10-14T15:39:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=213661"},"modified":"2024-10-14T11:39:52","modified_gmt":"2024-10-14T15:39:52","slug":"r-is-for-finance-most-definitely-part-two","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/r-is-for-finance-most-definitely-part-two\/","title":{"rendered":"R is For Finance? Most Definitely \u2013\u00a0Part Two"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Read <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/r-is-for-finance-most-definitely-part-one\/\">Part One<\/a> to learn about the origins of the R\/Finance Conference in Chicago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-conversation-with-jeff-ryan-on-the-origins-of-chicago-s-r-finance-conference-and-the-challenge-of-ai\"><strong>A Conversation with Jeff Ryan on the Origins of Chicago&#8217;s R\/Finance Conference and the Challenge of AI<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI\u2019ve always been uncomfortable with people stealing personal data from me,\u201d says Jeff Ryan, founder of Chicago\u2019s R\/Finance conference <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rinfinance.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.rinfinance.com\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He grins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cUnfortunately, that\u2019s one of the predicates for building an AI engine: you have to pretty much steal massive amounts of data that have essentially already been stolen. And it seems to me that when you take away the hype &#8212; the noise and the branding &#8212; there&#8217;s still no actual intelligence in AI. It\u2019s souped-up Natural Language Processing, which some of us were doing ten years ago.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He raises what he considers the core question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhat is generative AI actually generating? At this point, it\u2019s new glosses on old stuff &#8212; close-up magic, old parlor tricks dressed up to look new. In the end, we\u2019re still just talking about information retrieval &#8212; much smarter than a card catalog, sure &#8212; but we weren&#8217;t very excited with card catalogs, were we?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He pauses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cLet me back up. AI\u2019s good at putting things together. But that\u2019s not problem-solving. When you give it an actual problem that hasn\u2019t been solved, what does it do? It makes things up. That\u2019s why, for now, I avoid relying on it at all costs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, he says, there are definitely places where AI can be useful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe ability to scale up makes a difference, and AI can do that. It\u2019s also pretty amazing with graphics, though at the moment, that stuff may actually be more dangerous than anything. And it also helps with code completion.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In finance, though, Ryan believes that AI-driven quant and systematic trading face a difficult underlying challenge: trying to remove biases. In his view, almost all finance-oriented AI platforms are trained on the same data. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201dIn the end, they mostly wind up reacting to each other. It\u2019s the old story: a new trading idea is great until somebody else figures it out, at which point it stops working. To me, that\u2019s where AI is today \u2013 always \u2018learning\u2019 what its counterparts are doing at the same time that they\u2019re learning what it\u2019s doing. It all leads to a giant info loop. I don&#8217;t know how you get past that, even with a large language model. Outside the realm where an AI instance is trained, it will tend to fail. Things will break.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One place Ryan does see strong potential is with signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOver the last decade or so, we went from tracking 10, 500 or 1,000 meaningful signals to tracking millions. If AI and advanced machine learning can help combine signals \u2013 combine, say, 45 weak signals into a single meta-signal &#8212; it&#8217;s very possible there are things you\u2019ll discover that might help with portfolio construction. I\u2019m sure PM fundamental people would argue against this, but I suspect large language models could find ways to transform fundamental analysis into something more quantitative. A machine that can do highly nonlinear combinations could be really valuable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for Ryan\u2019s own efforts he says his goal remains what it\u2019s always been: to find the simplest solution that works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAn approach that\u2019s reliable enough to perform at roughly 90% of what might be possible will give you more than enough edge, especially if the last 10% carries big risks &#8212; like the current generation of AI.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In finance, though, Ryan believes that AI-driven quant and systematic trading face a difficult underlying challenge: trying to remove biases.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1261,"featured_media":213662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[339,343,338,341,342],"tags":[632,806,4922,3918,7242,852,17826,985,11312,6591,4079],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-213661","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-data-science","8":"category-programing-languages","9":"category-ibkr-quant-news","10":"category-quant-development","11":"category-r-development","12":"tag-ai","13":"tag-data-science","14":"tag-econometrics","15":"tag-financial-modeling","16":"tag-ibrokers","17":"tag-machine-learning","18":"tag-open-source-packages","19":"tag-r-programming","20":"tag-r-finance","21":"tag-rstats","22":"tag-trading-signals","23":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>R is For Finance? 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