{"id":213486,"date":"2024-10-09T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-09T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=213486"},"modified":"2024-10-18T12:23:51","modified_gmt":"2024-10-18T16:23:51","slug":"the-robotaxi-is-scheduled-to-arrive-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-robotaxi-is-scheduled-to-arrive-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"The Robotaxi is Scheduled to Arrive Tomorrow"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Tesla (TSLA) has been one of the most polarizing companies for years.\u00a0 I have often referred to it as a \u201cfaith-based\u201d stock, and it is well-documented that the early adherents were richly rewarded for their belief in the company and its founder, Elon Musk.\u00a0 Over the past couple of years, some might have found their confidence shaken while the stock has spent most of its time in a broad trading range.\u00a0 There have always been some who have taken a more cynical view as well.\u00a0 But no matter what your bias, TSLA has always been about the future, and tomorrow\u2019s robotaxi announcement will tell us whether that future will be arriving shortly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For several years, TSLA was by far the most active stock and options class at IBKR and elsewhere. Over the past year it has slipped to a perpetual #2 to Nvidia (NVDA) as artificial intelligence became the key market motif. Even though it no longer dominates investors\u2019 mindshare, TSLA remains a highly active name \u2013 especially ahead of well-disclosed events that have the potential to move the stock. As a result, we\u2019ll look at tomorrow\u2019s event as we would ahead of an earnings announcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Interestingly, the IBKR Probability Lab shows a peak probability for below the current $244 price for options that expire on Friday. The peak is in the $235-237.50 range, which seems counterintuitive for a stock that typically reflects optimism about its technology. Perhaps that is because the announcement has been delayed, or perhaps it\u2019s as simple as concern that this could be a \u201cbuy the rumor, sell the news\u201d event. Either way, I found this result to be surprising:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
IBKR Probability Lab for TSLA Options Expiring October 11, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
At-money volatility for this week\u2019s options is relatively elevated, as one might expect for an event of this type. A daily move of about 6.5% is price into these options. You might notice the bump for options expiring two weeks from now versus next week\u2019s. That reflects TSLA\u2019s earnings date of October 23rd<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TSLA Volatility Term Structure<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Options skews are quite flattish, implying that investors are equally concerned about missing an upside move as they are about hedging a downside surprise. This week\u2019s options have a bit of a weird \u201cW\u201d shape, with an implied volatility bump at-money relative to near upside and downside options. There is a bit of a \u201csmile\u201d for next week\u2019s expiration, but remarkably flat curves for options that expire in two weeks (remember earnings, which is why the line sits above next week\u2019s) and next month. Bottom line, folks don\u2019t show much risk aversion:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Skews for TSLA Options Expiring Oct 11th<\/sup> (dark blue), Oct 18th<\/sup> (yellow), Oct 25th<\/sup> (light blue), Nov 15th<\/sup> (orange)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
One measure does show the relative enthusiasm for the announcement. For options with strikes roughly +\/- 15% from the current price, the largest open interest is in 270 calls (~49k) and 260 calls (~40k) expiring this week. Those were not purchased by bears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Whether or not you view tomorrow\u2019s event as a key step towards an autonomous-driving future or simply the latest bright shiny object designed to keep the faithful in the fold, a wide range of investors will be tuned into the robotaxi event. The market gets to vote on that afterwards, and we\u2019ll know which set of options traders proved correct.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tesla (TSLA) has been one of the most polarizing companies for years. But no matter what your bias, TSLA has always been about the future, and tomorrow\u2019s robotaxi announcement will tell us whether that future will be arriving shortly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":213493,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[17916,161],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-213486","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-robotaxi","16":"tag-tesla","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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