{"id":212887,"date":"2024-10-02T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=212887"},"modified":"2024-10-03T03:48:46","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T07:48:46","slug":"dont-get-too-distracted-by-geopolitics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/dont-get-too-distracted-by-geopolitics\/","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t Get Too Distracted by Geopolitics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Yesterday we witnessed a truly consequential global event.  But not for equity investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The world needs to pay attention to anything that ratchets up tensions in the Middle East, and the spectacle of Iranian missiles being thankfully intercepted over Tel Aviv was gripping and momentous.  Thankfully, we have not yet seen the conflict escalate, and even though the possibility for a resumption of hostilities is ever-present, we don\u2019t see that concern reflected in key asset prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday morning, hours before Iran launched its offensive, we offered the following<\/a> quick take about the situation, featuring my persistent reminder about the difficulty that equity markets face when trying to price global events:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Middle East tensions<\/em><\/strong>: They\u2019re certainly not good for markets by any means, but it\u2019s important to keep in mind that equity markets are not particularly good at discerning the impact of geopolitical events on stock prices.  Remember, investors are very good at figuring out how news events might affect revenues, earnings, cash flows, etc., but that\u2019s very tough to do for the vast majority of stocks when it\u2019s events halfway around the world.  Instead, I look to bonds, where there is indeed a flight to safety bid, and oil, which is up modestly, but by no means panicky.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, after the news broke about US intelligence warning of a potential Iranian attack on Israel, the risk-off trade intensified.  That was understandable, of course.  The chart below shows three of the key indicators that I tend to watch for signs of market concern, 2-year Treasuries, crude oil, and VIX.  The news-related pop is obvious:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2-Day Chart, 2-Year Treasuries (white, near right scale), November NYMEX WTI Futures (blue, left scale), VIX (red, far right)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that the flight to safety trade ebbed somewhat during the hours that elapsed between the intelligence warning and the time when the rockets started flying.  On a personal note, I happened to be in a major newsroom when the barrage started.  There was a real buzz as reporters and producers scrambled, and my planned segment took on a much different tone than anticipated.  Quite frankly, it was exciting to offer real-time market commentary while uncertainty was at a peak.  (Here\u2019s the link<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once it became evident that the worst was over and Israeli authorities gave a tentative \u201call clear\u201d, we saw those key measures reverse somewhat.  This morning, we see all of them dipping somewhat after an overnight lift, with T-notes leading the decline after a stronger than expected ADP National Employment result. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding ADP: the increase of 143,000 jobs beat the 125k consensus, while last month\u2019s 99k was revised to 103k.  Although ADP is a highly imperfect predictor of the ensuing Nonfarm Payrolls report, bond traders hoping for rate cuts are sensitive to perceptions that solid employment results might impede the Fed\u2019s willingness to oblige them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for stocks, after a brief attempted selloff after this morning\u2019s open, traders bought the initial dip, and stocks are generally consolidating around yesterday\u2019s closing level.  Bear in mind that yesterday\u2019s lower close for SPX essentially recouped the rally that occurred during the last 20 minutes of Friday\u2019s trading, which was seemingly a \u201cmark the close\u201d rally as the third quarter came to an end:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"SPX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If global events are causing investors to reassess their risk exposure after a truly stellar quarter<\/a>, there is nothing wrong with that.  Investors should always be reassessing their risks, especially after a period of solid performance.  But overreacting to global events that have ill-defined consequences for the inputs that truly influence stock prices — revenues, earnings, cash flows, etc. \u2013 can cause investors to lose focus.  If global events do affect those inputs, such as oil prices boosting domestic energy stocks, then by all means pay close attention.  If not, be wary, but don\u2019t freak out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday we witnessed a truly consequential global event. But not for equity investors.
\nThe world needs to pay attention to anything that ratchets up tensions in the Middle East, and the spectacle of Iranian missiles being thankfully intercepted over Tel Aviv was gripping and momentous. Thankfully, we have not yet seen the conflict escalate, and even though the possibility for a resumption of hostilities is ever-present, we don\u2019t see that concern reflected in key asset prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":212890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,5,14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-212887","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","9":"category-ibkr-market-insights","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDon\u2019t Get Too Distracted by Geopolitics | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Yesterday we witnessed a truly consequential global event. 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