{"id":212611,"date":"2024-09-27T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=212611"},"modified":"2024-09-30T03:50:13","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T07:50:13","slug":"big-fireworks-from-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/big-fireworks-from-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Big Fireworks From China"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I can\u2019t help utilizing the recent bouts of Chinese economic stimuli to one of that country\u2019s most notable inventions.&nbsp; Gunpowder and fireworks were both invented in China, so it only seems fitting to think about the efforts to bolster that country\u2019s economy and markets in those terms.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chinese authorities unleashed a blitz of stimulus measures on their economy this week.&nbsp; Most were monetary.&nbsp; These included:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tuesday:<ul><li>A rare press briefing from the People\u2019s Bank of China (PBOC), the country&#8217;s central bank<\/li><\/ul><ul><li>A 50-basis point reduction in reserve requirements<\/li><\/ul><ul><li>Cut repo rates by 20bp to 1.5%<\/li><\/ul><ul><li>Cut mortgage rates by roughly 50bp to about 4%<\/li><\/ul><ul><li>Lowered the minimum down payment on second homes to 15% from 25%<\/li><\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Introduced a swap program to help stocks (about US$70bn equivalent)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wednesday: \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<ul><li>Cut rates on loans to banks by 30bp to 2%, affecting about 300 billion yuan (about US$43 billion)<\/li><\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Added nearly 200 billion yuan (about US$28 billion) into the banking system through reverse repos<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Thursday:<ul><li>The Politburo pledged to support the housing sector and add fiscal spending<\/li><\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Issued nearly US$300 billion in new bonds to pay for fiscal stimulus<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Friday:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After today\u2019s Chinese close (before the US open), the PBOC cut rates by 20bp from its Standing Lending Facilities.\u00a0 The overnight rate is now 2.35%, the 7-day is 2.5% and the 1-month is 2.85%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This barrage makes the Fed\u2019s recent 50bp cut seem a bit pedestrian, no?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unsurprisingly, mainland China\u2019s benchmark index had its best week in 16 years, as the CSI 300 rose by 15.7%. If the Chinese authorities wanted \u201cshock and awe\u201d, they succeeded.&nbsp; And that should be a good thing for the global economy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is important to remember the situation the last time that the Chinese market soared this much.&nbsp; In 2008, the Global Financial Crisis (\u201cGFC\u201d) was punishing a wide range of economies and markets.&nbsp; China was among the fastest to recover, and the Chinese economic expansion that ensued in the 2010\u2019s helped bring the world out of its funk.&nbsp; It was therefore concerning that China appeared to be getting mired in malaise.&nbsp; If its positive influence was such that it could bolster the global economy over a decade ago, its negative influence could be a sufficient drag in the coming years. &nbsp;&nbsp;That would be bad for most investments, which is why, politics aside, investors should be favoring China\u2019s measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet the responses have varied.&nbsp; European shares pushed, with the recently forlorn luxury sector showing a rebound.&nbsp; It is unlikely that those companies were an intended beneficiary of the Politburo\u2019s activities, but a more robust Chinese consumer can\u2019t hurt them.&nbsp; Here in the US, stocks have generally moved higher, but not particularly robustly.&nbsp; We seem to be digesting our most recent rate cut and more consumed with pondering the next.&nbsp; Paradoxically, if one has been buying stocks on the hope that more aggressive cuts are coming, a stronger global economy doesn\u2019t help \u2013 at least in the short-term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even commodities were mixed.&nbsp; Copper prices are up about 6% this week, but oil is down by a similar percentage.&nbsp; Tensions in the Middle East, or the current pause in escalation, have much to do with those moves, but a uniformly stronger Chinese economy should bolster demand for a wide range of commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps the muted responses belie a nagging concern: are things really that bad in China that such a dramatic orchestrated response was required?&nbsp; The measures aimed at bolstering the flagging real estate sector, such as a drop in the down payment for second homes, seem to be a sign that things might be truly dire for homeowners and landlords.&nbsp; As we learned the hard way during the GFC, a downward spiral in real estate, which is typically purchased using borrowed money, can result in nasty deflationary effects that can spread unpredictably.&nbsp; It is encouraging that the Chinese authorities are undertaking bold measures to hopefully stave off a metastasizing crisis \u2013 particularly in an equity-market friendly manner \u2013 but we won\u2019t know if those measures will ultimately bring success.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I can\u2019t help utilizing the recent bouts of Chinese economic stimuli to one of that country\u2019s most notable inventions.  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