{"id":212162,"date":"2024-09-23T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-23T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=212162"},"modified":"2024-10-02T12:46:25","modified_gmt":"2024-10-02T16:46:25","slug":"weekly-market-recap-september-23-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-september-23-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: September 23, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Retail sales grew 0.1% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing starts increased 9.6% saar<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FOMC reduced fed funds rate to 4.75% &#8211; 5.00%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Flash PMIs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>House price index<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2Q24 GDP (final estimate)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, the Fed kicked off its much-anticipated easing cycle with a bold move. It cut the policy rate by a jumbo 50bps, surprising many who expected a more regular 25bps cut seen at the start of a soft-landing easing cycle. This move has left investors wondering about the rationale behind it and its implications for markets and the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite strong economic indicators leading up to the FOMC meeting \u2013 including the Aug. retail sales report that beat expectations \u2013 the Fed chose to go big. Historically, the Fed has begun its easing cycle with an outsized cut when the economy faced an imminent downturn. Such a downturn, as shown in the chart of the week, is typically characterized by a sharp deterioration in real retail sales momentum, as seen in Jan. &#8217;01 and Sep. &#8217;07. However, with current sales momentum still solid, the outsized cut was atypical. In its defense, the Fed characterized this move as a \u201crecalibration\u201d of rates, emphasizing that it does not set the pace of future cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors were worried that a 50bps reduction, in the absence of apparent economic concerns, may signal hidden economic weakness. However, Chair Powell\u2019s repeated reassurances that the economy is still strong and that the jumbo cut is aimed to keep it that way seem to have eased those concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the dot plot suggests future cuts will likely be gradual, investors looking to diversify out of cash will find their window of opportunity shortened by this cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted September 23, 2024 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., September 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of September 23, 2024 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite strong economic indicators leading up to the FOMC meeting \u2013 including the Aug. retail sales report that beat expectations \u2013 the Fed chose to go big.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3598,2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-212162","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-market-outlook","13":"tag-market-recap","14":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: September 23, 2024 | Traders&#039; 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