{"id":212143,"date":"2024-09-20T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-20T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=212143"},"modified":"2024-09-23T05:39:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-23T09:39:00","slug":"triple-witch-says-remember-me","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/triple-witch-says-remember-me\/","title":{"rendered":"Triple-Witch Says, \u201cRemember Me?\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>For a good portion of my life, I avoided taking vacation days on the third Friday of a month.\u00a0 Options expired on a monthly basis, typically on those third Fridays, and the concentration of expiring options had the potential to increase volatility, both in the market as a whole and for our proprietary positions.\u00a0 And in the last month of each quarter, those expirations were even more critical \u2013 the unpredictability of quarterly expirations led to the nickname of \u201ctriple witching\u201d days.<a id=\"_ednref1\" href=\"#_edn1\">[i]<\/a><br>Then and now, quarterly expirations are when stock index futures and options join equity options in ending their lifespans.\u00a0 Index futures still expire on a quarterly basis, but the character of monthly expirations began to change after weekly options were listed in 2005.\u00a0 Because only the most actively traded options classes justified weekly expirations, much of the volume shifted into these shorter-dated products, reducing the relative importance of monthly expirations.\u00a0 When Wednesday, and later Monday, expirations for key indices and ETFs were introduced in 2016, few seemed to notice, or even care.\u00a0 But a few months after the expiration week was completed in 2022, much of the focus in the options trading world shifted to the so-called \u201czero-dated\u201d, or \u201c0DTE\u201d options.\u00a0 But even with nearly constant expirations, there are still some special reasons for traders to focus on the more significant expiration days.<br>Specifically, there are four key things to watch for on triple witch days.\u00a0 The first two apply to monthly expirations as well; the latter two apply only to quarterlies:<br><strong>AM-expiring options<\/strong>.\u00a0 The thing that differentiates monthly (including quarterly) expirations from the routine weekly and now daily is the presence of key index options that expire on the open, not the close.\u00a0 They are cash settled, so any residual delta evaporates on the open, making them trickier to hedge.\u00a0 If there are a lot of expiring contracts near the money, that can give us huge swings as hedgers try to stay as flat as possible.\u00a0 Quite frankly, expiring index options had little influence on this morning\u2019s open.\u00a0 After yesterday&#8217;s rally, we\u2019d outkicked the open interest.\u00a0 There simply weren\u2019t many AM expiring contracts near the money today, and since it\u2019s safe to assume that the bulk of the other contracts had already been hedged, pre-market futures were relatively stable this morning.<br><strong>All equity and ETF classes have some expiring options<\/strong>.\u00a0\u00a0 As noted above, most of the action occurs in classes with weekly and daily expiries, but this doesn\u2019t remove the importance of major expirations from consideration.\u00a0 There is still plenty of activity clustered around monthly expirations \u2013 those options get listed months before weeklies and dailies \u2013 so there is a surfeit of options, many of which can be deeply in- or out-of-the-money.\u00a0 Many of those options need to be rolled in the days or hours preceding a monthly expiry<br><strong>Futures expiring<\/strong>. \u00a0This can be a problem when there are extreme dislocations in the market (think March 2020), but under normal circumstances the vast majority of expiring contracts that have not already been liquidated have been rolled or otherwise hedged, so that typically doesn\u2019t offer major fireworks.<br><strong>Index rebalancing<\/strong>.\u00a0 This is the one to watch today.\u00a0 DELL, Palantir (PLTR), and Erie Indemnity (ERIE) are going in, replacing American Airlines (AAL), ETSY, and Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO). \u00a0Furthermore, in a strange quirk, Apple (AAPL) is getting its weight increased.\u00a0 Berkshire Hathaway\u2019s (BRK.B) stake was excluded from the stock\u2019s free float; BRK\u2019s recent sale increased the amount of stock available in the index calculation.\u00a0 That\u2019s a lot of money flowing into those names, meaning that a similar amount will need to flow out of the otherwise unaffected names.\u00a0 Remember, if you manage an index fund and have a stable amount of funds, the money needed to buy the new stock has to come from somewhere.\u00a0 If the money raised from selling the outgoing names is insufficient to pay for the incoming names, the fund must sell pieces of its other holdings to keep the necessary index balance.\u00a0 The money flowing out will be well dispersed (except for the three that are leaving), but it could lead to an unexpectedly large, across the board sell basket on the close.<br>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br>It is impossible to know in advance if any of these factors, including the rebalancing, will have a marked effect on trading this afternoon \u2013 especially after yesterday&#8217;s ferocious rally.\u00a0 But at least for this \u201ctriple-witch\u201d expiration, we need to pay attention to the likelihood that it could influence market activity after a consequential week.<br><br><br><a id=\"_edn1\" href=\"#_ednref1\">[i]<\/a> From 2001-2020, when single-stock futures traded in the US, \u201ctriple-witching\u201d became \u201cquadruple-witching\u201d.\u00a0 When the OneChicago exchange closed, the nomenclature reverted to \u201ctriple-witching.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For a good portion of my life, I avoided taking vacation days on the third Friday of a month.  Options expired on a monthly basis, typically on those third Fridays, and the concentration of expiring options had the potential to increase volatility, both in the market as a whole and for our proprietary positions.  And in the last month of each quarter, those expirations were even more critical \u2013 the unpredictability of quarterly expirations led to the nickname of \u201ctriple witching\u201d days. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":185776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-212143","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Triple-Witch Says, \u201cRemember Me?\u201d | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For a good portion of my life, I avoided taking vacation days on the third Friday of a month. 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