{"id":212028,"date":"2024-09-17T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-17T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=212028"},"modified":"2024-10-04T13:17:49","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T17:17:49","slug":"retail-sales-rise-0-1-in-august-more-than-expected-boosting-odds-of-larger-fed-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/retail-sales-rise-0-1-in-august-more-than-expected-boosting-odds-of-larger-fed-rate-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Retail Sales Rise 0.1% In August, More Than Expected, Boosting Odds Of Larger Fed Rate Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">Zinger Key Points<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in August, beating expectations of a 0.2% decline, indicating continued consumer spending strength.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Slower growth than July\u2019s revised 1.1%, but still higher than anticipated, potentially reducing the need for a larger Fed rate cut.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. retail sales rose more than expected by 0.1% month-over-month in August, signaling a resilient consumer spending momentum in the middle&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/analyst-ratings\/analyst-color\/24\/09\/40883023\/how-second-tier-economic-data-tuesday-could-sway-the-feds-rate-decision-it-will-be-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">of the third quarter.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Retail sales slowed significantly from July\u2019s upwardly revised growth; however, as they increased more than anticipated, this could boost the chances of a smaller interest rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes for&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/analyst-ratings\/analyst-color\/24\/09\/40878710\/investors-bet-on-50-basis-point-rate-cut-wall-street-analysts-urge-caution-this-is-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">its two-day meeting.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before the retail sales data was released, market-implied probabilities pointed to a 67% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut, compared to a 33% likelihood of a smaller 25-basis-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">August Retail Sales Report: Key Highlights<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Retail sales rose by 0.1% on a monthly basis in August, beating the expected 0.2% decline as per TradingEconomics\u2019 consensus.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>July\u2019s retail sales growth was upwardly revised from 1% to 1.1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On a year-over-year basis, retail sales eased from the upwardly revised 2.9% in July to 2.1% in August.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales grew by 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.4% growth in July and missing the expected 0.2% increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>When excluding gasoline, motor vehicles, and parts, sales rose by 0.2% month-over-month in August, a slowdown from the 0.4% gain in July, and below the expected 0.3%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Among spending categories, the largest monthly gains were recorded in miscellaneous store retailers, up 1.7%, and nonstore retailers, up 1.4%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Conversely, gasoline station, electronics and appliance stores experienced the steepest monthly decline, with sales dropping by 1.2% and 1.1% respectively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Reactions: Dollar Strengthens, Treasury Yields Rise<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened following the retail sales report, driven by rising Treasury yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yields on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note surged by about 5 basis points to 3.59%, indicating dwelling odds for a larger Fed rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stocks inched higher during Tuesday\u2019s premarket trading, with futures on the S&amp;P 500 up 0.4% at 08:50 a.m. in New York. Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.6% higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Monday, tech stocks closed in the red. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted September 17, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/economics\/macro-economic-events\/24\/09\/40897882\/retail-sales-rise-0-1-in-august-more-than-expected-boosting-odds-of-larger-fed-ra\">Retail Sales Rise 0.1% In August, More Than Expected, Boosting Odds Of Larger Fed Rate Cut<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in August, beating expectations of a 0.2% decline, indicating continued consumer spending strength.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[4979,1546],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-212028","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-rate-cuts","13":"tag-retail-sales","14":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Retail Sales Rise 0.1% In August, More Than Expected, Boosting Odds Of 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