{"id":212004,"date":"2024-09-16T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-16T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=212004"},"modified":"2024-10-04T13:12:01","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T17:12:01","slug":"weekly-market-recap-september-16-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-september-16-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: September 16, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline CPI rose 2.5% y\/y, matching expectations<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPIs came in slightly above expectations at 0.2% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ECB cut rates by 25bps to 3.5%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FOMC meeting<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing starts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s all relative when it comes to growth. S&amp;P 500 4Q earnings are expected to grow by 16% y\/y and 14% ex-Magnificent 7. However, it\u2019s important to put these numbers in the context of the 2022 earnings recession. This week\u2019s chart looks at each sector\u2019s 2Q24 and 4Q24 earnings relative to the maximum EPS achieved between 4Q21 and 1Q24. In every sector except Financials, 2Q24 earnings, the blue bar, were still below their previous maximum, represented by the grey bar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among Tech and Mag 7 companies, the base rate effect is especially pronounced. These names have seen extremely strong growth over the past few quarters, but they also experienced the largest contractions in 2022. Tech sector earnings had a maximum drawdown of 17% and didn\u2019t fully recover until 4Q23. Similarly, Mag 7 earnings fell 40% from 4Q21 to 2Q22, and again, didn\u2019t fully rebound until the end of 2023. Looking ahead, the large gap between 2Q24 reality and 4Q24 expectations will be a high hurtle to beat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tech got an early boost from AI enthusiasm, but other sectors are on the up and up as well. This past earnings season, the S&amp;P 500 ex-Mag 7 saw positive EPS growth for the first time in five quarters, with 8 out of 11 sectors seeing gains. But the outlook for earnings growth is about more than just a recovery. If the economy sticks the soft landing, it should make for a supportive environment for many more than just 7 companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1004\" height=\"398\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-122224.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-212007 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-122224.png 1004w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-122224-700x277.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-122224-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-16-122224-768x304.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1004px) 100vw, 1004px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1004px; aspect-ratio: 1004\/398;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<br>Data are as of September 10, 2024.<br>Thought of the week: Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted September 16, 2024 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., September 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of September 16, 2024 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S&amp;P 500 4Q earnings are expected to grow by 16% y\/y and 14% ex-Magnificent 7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":212007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1685,3598,2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-212004","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-macro","14":"tag-market-outlook","15":"tag-market-recap","16":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly 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