{"id":211880,"date":"2024-09-12T10:38:51","date_gmt":"2024-09-12T14:38:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=211880"},"modified":"2024-09-13T03:34:08","modified_gmt":"2024-09-13T07:34:08","slug":"chart-advisor-this-is-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-this-is-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: This is Gold!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Jay A. Petit, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ This is Gold!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Treasury’s Next Target<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ EM Bond Re-emerge<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This is Gold!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After a 10-year uptrend, with interim pullbacks, Gold spent the next 9 years digesting this rise through a consolidation, creating a\u00a0basing pattern<\/a>. Thereafter, the price went on a\u00a0sideways drift<\/a>\u00a0for close to 4 years, making higher highs and lower lows, producing a\u00a0broadening formation<\/a>\u00a0also known as megaphone. Six months ago, Gold broke out, confirmed by the RSI going into overbought territory, which is evidence of strong buying interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A projected target shy of $3100 can be calculated by taking the height of the basing pattern at its widest spread and adding it to the breakout area. That very same target is also obtained by the 2.618\u00a0Fibonacci ratio measurement<\/a>\u00a0taken off the September 2011 to December 2015 decline. As long as the price can stay above $2300, the next resistance area will be the so-called psychological level at $3000, notwithstanding periods of consolidation along the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Treasury’s Next Target<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On this weekly chart, we can see how the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) is in a slow process of turning around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the price low in October 2023 is lower than its previous low (October 2022), the RSI made a higher low, creating a\u00a0bullish divergence<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next price low, in April 2024, made a higher low compared to its previous low, the RSI alleviated from oversold levels, suggesting the selling is abating, which is technically a constructive sign for the Treasury ETF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

$TLT\u2019s price action since mid-2022 produced an\u00a0inverted head & shoulder pattern<\/a>. As the ETF has been able to penetrate the neckline, a target can now be projected around $117.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

EM Bond Re-emerge<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The iShares J.P.Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF ($EMB) has been in a price recovery mode since its October 2022 low. The price action making higher lows is technically constructive. To help identify important technical levels of support and resistance, Technical Analysts frequently use the\u00a0Fibonacci retracements<\/a>. These retracement levels are arrived at by first measuring a complete trend, in this case the January 2021 to October 2022 decline. These calculated levels then act as resistance on the way up and once the price surpasses them, they then act as support levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Three weeks ago, the price was able to lift above its 38.2% retracement level, which is another positive technical input in the price chart, as the breakout suggests that the ETF could rally back to the 61.8%\u00a0Fibonacci retracement<\/a>, just above $100, notwithstanding interim pullbacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 12 September 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Jay A. Petit, CMT 1\/ This is Gold! 2\/ Treasury’s Next Target 3\/ EM Bond Re-emerge Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":211886,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,14,15,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[6917,255,399,6609],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-211880","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-etfs","9":"category-fixed-income","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-technical-analysis","16":"category-text-articles","17":"category-traders-insight","18":"tag-emb","19":"tag-gold","20":"tag-jpm","21":"tag-tlt","22":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: This is Gold! 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