{"id":211444,"date":"2024-09-06T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-06T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=211444"},"modified":"2024-09-09T03:48:05","modified_gmt":"2024-09-09T07:48:05","slug":"some-quick-thoughts-after-goldilocks-jobs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/some-quick-thoughts-after-goldilocks-jobs\/","title":{"rendered":"Some Quick Thoughts After Goldilocks\u2019 Jobs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Although I have a major commitment outside the office today, I couldn\u2019t let the markets\u2019 reaction to today\u2019s jobs report go without comment.&nbsp; Thus, today\u2019s article will be brief and somewhat off-the-cuff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-in-a-suit-needs-goldilocks-employment\/\">Yesterday we wrote<\/a> that we needed a \u201cGoldilocks\u201d report, somewhere around consensus.\u00a0 On balance that\u2019s what we got.\u00a0 The headline Payrolls number was in the ballpark (142k vs 165k), though 2-month revisions were quite large (-86k).\u00a0 Balancing that out, we had the Unemployment Rate fall to 4.2% as expected, and Average Hourly Earnings rose more than expected at 0.4% (vs 0.3% exp).\u00a0\u00a0 <strong><em>My read is that the pace of hiring has clearly slowed, but we\u2019re not firing either<\/em><\/strong>.\u00a0 From a dual mandate point of view, they can certainly assert that we remain closer to maximum employment than not.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>That\u2019s why Fed Funds futures show basically a coin flip for a 50bp cut in the FOMC meeting that occurs in a week and a half.\u00a0 There\u2019s nothing sufficient in today\u2019s report to push us in either direction.\u00a0 It\u2019s also why after 2-year yields plunged by 9 basis points after the number, the gain is down to about 1bp now<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We will need to listen carefully to the Fed talking heads next week before the quiet period.\u00a0 The market tends to ignore the ensemble cast in favor of the leading man (Powell), but since this is a Fed that prefers consensus and dislikes surprising investors, we need as many clues as we can get. \u00a0Put it this way: <strong><em>if the odds for a cut are split 50\/50 between 25 and 50bp, then by definition, half the market will be surprised<\/em><\/strong>.\u00a0 Maybe next week\u2019s CPI and PPI reports will add clarity<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Someone asked me this morning if the soft-landing narrative is in peril.\u00a0 I\u2019m not sure why (especially given the paucity of precedents for them).\u00a0 The AtlantaFed GDPNow model projects 2.1% GDP growth.\u00a0 That is indeed consistent with a soft landing.\u00a0 An unemployment rate of 4.2% is something historically enviable, though it is indeed above its lows.\u00a0 And if we should doubt a soft landing, how can we expect double-digit earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500 next year?\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us-unemployment-rate-since-1948\"><strong><em>US Unemployment Rate Since 1948<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"449\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Picture1-4-1100x449.png\" alt=\"US Unemployment Rate Since 1948\" class=\"wp-image-211446 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Picture1-4-1100x449.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Picture1-4-700x286.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Picture1-4-300x122.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Picture1-4-768x314.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Picture1-4-1536x627.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/Picture1-4.png 1705w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/449;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>As for the \u201cmonetary policy is too restrictive\u201d argument, my retort is \u201cbased upon what?\u201d\u00a0 A stock market that is in spitting distance of all-time highs?\u00a0 A corporate bond market that absorbed $80bn in new issuance in three days this week without blinking?\u00a0 We\u2019ve all become liquidity addicts, hoping desperately for a fresh dose whether we really need it or not.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Re VIX<\/strong> \u2013 The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains relatively firm after a dip this morning.\u00a0 The dip in VIX made sense \u2013 remember, VIX is constructed to reflect the market\u2019s best estimate for volatility over the coming 30 days (not as a fear gauge).\u00a0 Thus, when we put a potential volatility-causing event in the rear-view mirror, it\u2019s normal to see VIX dip.\u00a0 But with the Fed meeting a toss-up, traders began placing additional focus on the \u201cin-play\u201d FOMC meeting in a week-and-a-half. \u00a0The firm VIX tells me that institutional investors are still seeking volatility protection ahead of that event, though not aggressively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Although I have a major commitment outside the office today, I couldn\u2019t let the markets\u2019 reaction to today\u2019s jobs report go without comment.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":206992,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1145,77,314,1685,3598],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-211444","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-economics","15":"tag-fed","16":"tag-fomc","17":"tag-macro","18":"tag-market-outlook","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium 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