{"id":211354,"date":"2024-09-04T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-04T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=211354"},"modified":"2024-09-06T15:23:07","modified_gmt":"2024-09-06T19:23:07","slug":"question-du-jour-whats-wrong-with-nvda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/question-du-jour-whats-wrong-with-nvda\/","title":{"rendered":"Question du Jour \u2013 \u201cWhat\u2019s Wrong with NVDA?\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As you might expect, a key element of my job involves discussing markets with members of the media.  Don\u2019t get me wrong \u2013 it\u2019s a highly enjoyable privilege.  But there are days (generally volatile ones) where I\u2019m more popular than others.  And almost every discussion involved some version of \u201cwhy did Nvidia (NVDA<\/span>) get hit so hard?\u201d  Funny, when the stock rallied about 30% in two weeks last month, adding a cool $1 trillion to its market capitalization, no one asked me why.   And bear in mind that we haven\u2019t been at these low levels since\u2026 checks notes\u2026 less than a month ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NVDA remains by far the most active stock on our platform, with buying activity far outpacing selling.  Many investors have understandably become true believers.  Frankly speaking, a lot of people have made A LOT of money in a fairly short period of time, so it makes sense.  And the belief is based upon results.  I can’t recall a company so consistently beating on the top and bottom lines, raising guidance, then doing it all again the next quarter.  The growth has been stupendous, justifying a big rally, and thrilling many investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current NVDA sell-off is a gut check for sanguine investors.  But first, bear in mind that we haven\u2019t been at these low levels since\u2026 checks notes\u2026 less than a month ago.  It\u2019s easy to forget that the stock rallied from under $100 to over $130 from August 7th<\/sup> -21st<\/sup>.  I heard no complaints when the stock was shooting higher because we\u2019ve come to expect that the stock will go up rapidly.  It\u2019s become a very volatile stock, so investors who believe in the company had better get used to the swings.  Investors love volatility on the way up (aka \u201csocially acceptable volatility\u201d) but hate it on the way down.  Unfortunately, one usually brings the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NVDA 6-Months, Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Note that the peak occurred shortly after the 10:1 split went into effect.  Buy the rumor, sell the news\u2026)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, I think we’re at a point where individual investor enthusiasm remains sky high (it never occurred<\/em> to me to attend an earnings watch party) at a time when institutional investors seem to be taking a more sober view.  And, because traders react while investors consider, it is understandable why institutional investors might have waited until yesterday to make a move.  Many portfolio managers take vacations and send their kids off to college in late August, rather than focus on their work.   Some might attribute this to seasonality, which we noted yesterday<\/a>, but there are less emotional, more sober reasons why investors may choose to protect their well-earned profits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week\u2019s earnings report reminded us that we have become quite spoiled by NVDA\u2019s consistent ability to beat revenue and earnings estimates, raise guidance, then do it again next quarter.  But the magnitude of the beats has been shrinking.  As we pointed out last week<\/a>, NVDA\u2019s EPS beat consensus by 31.07% last August.  The level of \u201cbeat\u201d has declined since then to 19.64%, 11.69% and 8.51% ahead of last week\u2019s 5.43%.  NVDA\u2019s EPS beats have gone from enormous to pedestrian.  A stock with a 50 P\/E needs to be more than pedestrian.  At that valuation it needs to be excellent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s clear that investors have not given up their well-deserved faith in NVDA yet.  Only the most robust stocks could be essentially unchanged after receiving a subpoena from the Department of Justice<\/a>.  But the stock\u2019s smooth upward trajectory has become quite a bit bumpier in recent weeks.  Turbulence is often unsettling.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As you might expect, a key element of my job involves discussing markets with members of the media. Don\u2019t get me wrong \u2013 it\u2019s a highly enjoyable privilege. But almost every discussion involved some version of \u201cwhy did Nvidia (NVDA) get hit so hard?\u201d Funny, when the stock rallied about 30% in two weeks last month, adding a cool $1 trillion to its market capitalization, no one asked me why. And bear in mind that we haven\u2019t been at these low levels since\u2026 checks notes\u2026 less than a month ago.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":201212,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[267,8235,44],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-211354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-earnings","tag-nvidia","tag-stocks","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nQuestion du Jour \u2013 \u201cWhat\u2019s Wrong with NVDA?\u201d<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As you might expect, a key element of my job involves discussing markets with members of the media. 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