{"id":211242,"date":"2024-09-03T12:30:21","date_gmt":"2024-09-03T16:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=211242"},"modified":"2024-09-04T03:49:32","modified_gmt":"2024-09-04T07:49:32","slug":"reading-writing-math-and-equity-losses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/reading-writing-math-and-equity-losses\/","title":{"rendered":"Reading, Writing, Math and Equity Losses: Sep. 3, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The September blues are hitting Wall Street today as investors embrace risk-off postures in light of four-consecutive years in which the back-to-school month has dished out equity losses. Moreover, market participants are scooping up stocks in the defensive healthcare, utilities and consumer staples sectors to hide from potential economic turbulence. Treasurys, put options and forecast contracts are also of great interest today, with yields drifting south and volatility levels flying north amidst a pickup in earnings uncertainty. The economic calendar failed to offer support to market bulls, with worse-than-projected contractions from both ISM-Manufacturing and the Census\u2019s Construction Spending reports.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-manufacturing-malaise-continues\"><strong>Manufacturing Malaise Continues<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August, according to this morning\u2019s Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Last month\u2019s score of 47.2 for the manufacturing PMI missed the median estimate of 47.5 but illustrated a softer pace of decline than July\u2019s 46.8. Sluggish ordering activity, employment, production and inventories all arrived beneath the contraction-expansion threshold of 50, with figures of 47.4, 45.9, 44.5 and 43.4. Despite softening demand and hiring, cost pressures didn\u2019t cooperate, with the price component arriving at 52.9, accelerating from the previous period\u2019s 52.1. Finally, while a score below 50 depicts recessionary conditions in the goods producing sector, a score less than 42.5 is more consistent with an overall economic downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"840\" height=\"611\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/PMI-9-3-24.jpg\" alt=\"Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index \" class=\"wp-image-211297 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/PMI-9-3-24.jpg 840w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/PMI-9-3-24-700x509.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/PMI-9-3-24-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/PMI-9-3-24-768x559.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 840px; aspect-ratio: 840\/611;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bulldozers-dozed-in-july\"><strong>Bulldozers Dozed in July<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Construction outlays experienced broad weakness in July as elevated financing costs and stretched affordability took a bite from residential and commercial activity. Spending declined 0.3% despite expectations for a flat number which would\u2019ve matched the former month. On a month-over-month (m\/m) basis, the residential and commercial segments decreased 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.\u00a0Other categories with significant declines and their noted contractions include the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Religious, 2.2%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Health Care, 2.0%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Educational, 0.9%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Public safety, 0.8%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Highway and street, 0.8%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Conservation and development, 0.8%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Communication, 0.7%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lodging, 0.6%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Amusement and recreation, 0.6%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The following categories along with their m\/m change were the only groups to show increases:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Water supply, 2.0%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Transportation, 1.4%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Office, 0.6%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sewage and waste disposal, 0.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Manufacturing, 0.1%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/US-Construction-Spending-9-3-24.png\" alt=\"US Construction Spending \" class=\"wp-image-211298 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/US-Construction-Spending-9-3-24.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/US-Construction-Spending-9-3-24-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/US-Construction-Spending-9-3-24-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/US-Construction-Spending-9-3-24-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bulls-take-a-break-as-summer-vacation-ends\"><strong>Bulls Take a Break as Summer Vacation Ends<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The back-to-school season isn\u2019t just producing frowns for some students that wish the summer was just a little bit longer, it\u2019s also dealing investors with losses. We\u2019re seeing heavy selling pressure on Wall Street with all major indices losing on the session. The Russell 2000, Nasdaq Composite, S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial benchmarks are travelling south by 2.2%, 2.1%, 1.3% and 1%. Sector breadth is awful with the three defensive segments and rent rolls helping to cushion the blow. Indeed, consumer staples, real estate, healthcare and utilities are the sole gainers and are up 0.8%, 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.2%. Leading to the downside are technology, energy and materials, which are falling 3%, 2.5% and 1.6%. Treasurys are catching a bid against the backdrop, however, with the 2- and 10-year maturities changing hands at 3.89% and 3.85%, 4 and 7 basis points (bps) lighter on the session. The dollar is gaining, however, as the Fed and Bank of Japan appear disciplined in engineering monetary policy, with the former institution expected to reduce rates slowly while the latter is open to hiking more if price pressures don\u2019t cooperate. The Dollar Index is up 21 bps as the greenback appreciates relative to most of its counterparts, including the euro, pound sterling, franc, yuan and Aussie and Canadian dollars. It is depreciating versus the yen, though, and traders around the world are bracing for the possibility of another dramatic unwinding of the yen carry trade. Commodities are getting smoked with crude oil, copper, silver, lumber and gold down 4.6%, 2.9%, 2%, 0.6% and 0.5%. WTI crude is trading at $71.15 per barrel on the back of incoming supply increases from OPEC+ and dismal demand conditions from the globe\u2019s largest oil importer, Beijing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-volatility-is-likely-in-the-coming-months\"><strong>Volatility Is Likely in the Coming Months<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This year\u2019s equity market has been remarkable with investors managing a plethora of headwinds while only stomaching one negative month\u2014April. The rubber may be meeting the road, however, as monetary policy uncertainty coincides with political unknowns. Additionally, the Street is expecting robust profit growth next year, with estimates up in the double digits on a year-over-year percentage basis. Meanwhile, current earnings calls are telling a story of cautious consumers and households that are running out of money before the month is over. Any turbulence in the outlook for the bottom line will certainly generate selling pressures like we\u2019re seeing today. The flip of the coin, however, is that sluggish activity is typically met with liquidity injections, which can stimulate growth and lead to a continuation of bull markets. Finally, <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;clt=0&amp;forwardTo=100#\/markets?market=g2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IBKR Forecast Traders<\/a> are looking to capitalize on political quarrels or offer insurance against Washington disputes, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;clt=0&amp;forwardTo=100#\/market-details?market=g2&amp;id=7234329402024093001&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">government shutdown<\/a> question by September 30 priced at $0.30 for the Yes and $0.68 for the No.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"570\" height=\"84\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/FX-Shutdown-9-3-24.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-211299 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/FX-Shutdown-9-3-24.png 570w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/FX-Shutdown-9-3-24-300x44.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 570px) 100vw, 570px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 570px; aspect-ratio: 570\/84;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about Forecast Contracts, please view our recent podcast with Wall Street Veteran and ForecastEx CEO David Downey <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Vix7rchq6b8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The September blues are hitting Wall Street today as investors embrace risk-off postures in light of four-consecutive years in which the back-to-school month has dished out equity losses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":105699,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[15061,11672,17630,16114],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-211242","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-construction-spending","15":"tag-macro-outlook","16":"tag-pmi-prices","17":"tag-pmi-manufacturing","18":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 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content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/reading-writing-math-and-equity-losses\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/reading-writing-math-and-equity-losses\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&amp;M University. 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