{"id":211066,"date":"2024-08-27T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-27T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=211066"},"modified":"2024-08-28T03:52:33","modified_gmt":"2024-08-28T07:52:33","slug":"nvda-remains-the-markets-atlas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nvda-remains-the-markets-atlas\/","title":{"rendered":"NVDA Remains the Market\u2019s Atlas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>After last quarter\u2019s earnings I termed Nvidia (NVDA) \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nvidia-the-markets-atlas\/\">The Market\u2019s Atlas<\/a>\u201d, referring to its seeming ability to hoist the whole market on its broad shoulders.&nbsp; Ahead of tomorrow\u2019s earnings report, here is some further evidence why I believe that analogy remains apt.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Below, we will refer to some volume internal volume statistics.&nbsp; They come from a \u201cTop 25\u201d activity list that I receive daily.&nbsp; I DO NOT have access to detailed customer information \u2013 the numbers are strictly cumulative and have no customer details WHATSOEVER.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In case you harbor any doubts about the broader market impact of tomorrow\u2019s NVDA earnings, see below.&nbsp; We\u2019ve gotten quite used to seeing NVDA atop the IBKR Top 25 leaderboard most weeks, cementing its key role in investor psychology.&nbsp; Looking beyond that, it is quite clear that the company plays a crucial role affecting a wide range of other popular investment vehicles.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>At #10, we have NVDL, the GraniteShares 2X Long NVDA Daily ETF.\u00a0 If customers like NVDA, why shouldn\u2019t some like it twice as much via a 2X single-stock ETF?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>At #4 and #9 we have The Direxion Daily Seminconductors Bull and Bear 3X ETFs (SOXL, SOXS).\u00a0 Thanks to NVDA\u2019s 9.5% weighing in the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX), the sector\u2019s bellwether, of course some investors would seek to triple-lever their exposure to the sector, both up (SOXL) and down (SOXS).\u00a0 (Interestingly, unlevered SOXX is not on the list.\u00a0 Our customers like action.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Any hiccups in demand for NVDA\u2019s products could have an effect on other semiconductor stocks, such as #3 AMD, #20 Intel (INTC), and #22 Micron (MU).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NVDA\u2019s weight in the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is a bit over 8%, so of course it will have an effect on ETFs that track NDX.\u00a0 Triple-levered TQQQ (Proshares Ultrapro QQQ) is in 6<sup>th<\/sup>, outpacing the 7<sup>th<\/sup> place \u201cregular\u201d QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF) upon which it is based, and the -3X SQQQ (Proshares Ultrapro Short QQQ)\u00a0 which brings up the rear in 25<sup>th<\/sup> place.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NVDA is also about 6.5% of the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), thus affecting #17 SPY (SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Then of course, we have some of NVDA\u2019s key customers, not limited to #2 Tesla (TSLA), #8 Super Micro Computer (SMCI, and the volume stat are from before today\u2019s Hindenburg induced dip and partial recovery), #13 Meta Platforms (META), #15 Amazon (AMZN), #16 Apple (AAPL), and #18 Microsoft (MSFT).\u00a0 (Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) would complete the Mag 7 superfecta, but it missed this week\u2019s list.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>And, for those who remember NVDA as the key cryptocurrency supplier, we can include #12 Microstrategy (MSTR) and #23 Coinbase (COIN) as potentially affected stocks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I frankly can\u2019t think of any historical precedent for NVDA\u2019s ability to beat consensus estimates for the top and bottom lines while raising guidance and then doing it again quarter after quarter.&nbsp; It\u2019s been simply astounding.&nbsp; Logically, one would expect that the pace of growth would eventually slow.&nbsp; Those who are developing artificial intelligence applications might understandably want to focus upon finding profitable real-world uses for them rather than simply continuing to spend more money on creating them.&nbsp; But we haven\u2019t seen that yet.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The risk, of course, is that NVDA acknowledges that possibility.&nbsp; It can happen at any time, though of course it hasn\u2019t happened yet.&nbsp; But it is indisputable that the longer-term volatility has increased.&nbsp; A bit over six weeks ago, on July 10, NVDA traded up to $136.15 before closing at $127.40.&nbsp; Three weeks ago, when the yen carry trade imploded, the stock opened at $92.06, and touched $90.69 before closing at $100.45.&nbsp; Yesterday, we were briefly back over $131, a few dollars above where we trade currently.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After this trillion dollar turnaround, it seems fair to be concerned that we head into earnings with re-inflated expectations, potentially with an even higher \u201cwhisper number\u201d in investors\u2019 minds.&nbsp; Bearing in mind that CEO Jensen Huang <a href=\"https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/news\/stocks\/nvidia-jensen-huang-stock-sale-tech-selloff-fed-rate-cuts-2024-8\">has been selling<\/a> hundreds of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/companies\/nvidia-s-jensen-huang-sells-14-million-in-stock-almost-daily-raising-questions-about-his-successor\/ar-AA1peHFi?ocid=BingNewsVerp\">millions of dollars of stock recently<\/a>, and it\u2019s exceedingly unlikely to expect another 10:1 split, the stakes are indeed quite high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After last quarter\u2019s earnings I termed Nvidia (NVDA) \u201cThe Market\u2019s Atlas\u201d, referring to its seeming ability to hoist the whole market on its broad shoulders.  Ahead of tomorrow\u2019s earnings report, here is some further evidence why I believe that analogy remains apt.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":207129,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[267,8235,4109],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-211066","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-earnings","15":"tag-nvidia","16":"tag-stock-market","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NVDA Remains the Market\u2019s Atlas | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After last quarter\u2019s earnings I termed Nvidia (NVDA) \u201cThe Market\u2019s Atlas\u201d, referring to its seeming ability to hoist the whole market on its...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211066\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NVDA Remains the Market\u2019s Atlas | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After last quarter\u2019s earnings I termed Nvidia (NVDA) \u201cThe Market\u2019s Atlas\u201d, referring to its seeming ability to hoist the whole market on its broad shoulders. 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/graphics-card-nvidia-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=211066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211066\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/207129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=211066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=211066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=211066"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=211066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}