{"id":210990,"date":"2024-08-26T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-26T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=210990"},"modified":"2024-08-28T15:12:41","modified_gmt":"2024-08-28T19:12:41","slug":"weekly-market-recap-august-26-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-august-26-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: August 26, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Prelim mfg. PMI fell to 48.0 while the svcs. PMI rose to 55.2<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Revisions removed 818k jobs from payroll employment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2Q GDP (second estimate)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PCE<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Initial jobless claims have risen in recent months, averaging 236k since early June versus 213k in the first five months of 2024. Claims were volatile in July and, on two occasions, spiked to their highest levels since last August. This, in tandem with a weaker Jobs report, stoked fears of a rapidly cooling labor market. Interestingly, a deeper dive into state-level data suggests that two states are largely to blame for the swings in claims: Texas and Michigan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In these states, three of the last six weeks have shown week-to-week changes in initial claims that surpass one standard deviation in magnitude based on data back to 1988. In Michigan, larger temporary auto plant closures in July likely pressured more individuals to file for unemployment. In Texas, storm-related issues forced individuals out of work as the jump in claims coincided with Hurricane Beryl\u2019s landfall in the state. These spikes proved temporary, however, and claims in both states have retraced lower. For the week ended August 17, initial claims settled at 232k, higher than prints earlier this year but below the average 244k reported in the five years before the pandemic. While weekly prints may be volatile, long-term investors should focus on longer-term trends, which show a labor market that is slowing, but not one that is rapidly deteriorating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beyond claims, BLS revisions released last week removed 818k jobs from payroll employment in March 2024. This suggests the labor market was weaker than reported in 2023, but also that strong productivity gains should be revised upward. In his speech at Jackson Hole, Chair Powell expressed more confidence in the disinflation process and noted the FOMC does \u201cnot seek or welcome\u201d further cooling in the labor market. This cements a first rate cut in September, creating a sense of urgency for investors to lock in attractive yields before they move lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1003\" height=\"403\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Screenshot-2024-08-26-110453.png\" alt=\"Change in initial jobless claims\" class=\"wp-image-210991 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Screenshot-2024-08-26-110453.png 1003w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Screenshot-2024-08-26-110453-700x281.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Screenshot-2024-08-26-110453-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Screenshot-2024-08-26-110453-768x309.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1003px) 100vw, 1003px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1003px; aspect-ratio: 1003\/403;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chart of the Week: Source: Department of Labor, Haver Analytics, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Change in aggregated state-level initial claims may not equal the change in reported initial claims due to seasonal adjustments being applied to state-level data.<br>Thought of the week: Source: BLS, Department of Labor, HaverAnalytics, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted August 26, 2024 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., July 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of August 26, 2024 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In his speech at Jackson Hole, Chair Powell expressed more confidence in the disinflation process and noted the FOMC does \u201cnot seek or welcome\u201d further cooling in the labor market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":210991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,757,1685],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-210990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-fed","tag-jobless-claims","tag-macro","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: August 26, 2024 | 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