{"id":210869,"date":"2024-08-22T12:20:42","date_gmt":"2024-08-22T16:20:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=210869"},"modified":"2024-08-23T03:43:27","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T07:43:27","slug":"what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-jackson-hole","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-jackson-hole\/","title":{"rendered":"What to Expect When You\u2019re Expecting Jackson Hole"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A ski mountain looks very different whether you\u2019re at the bottom, the middle, or the top. The same can be said for markets.\u00a0As an avid skier, though one who has never been to Jackson Hole, I believe that the analogy nonetheless applies. The lifts may be closed now, but we can once again call on Fed Chair Powell to be our mountain guide when he speaks tomorrow.\u00a0He might let us know whether we should continue to ride the chairlift higher, and if not, whether the route will be gentle or steep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have been&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/will-powell-channel-larry-david\/\">voicing concerns<\/a>&nbsp;ahead of tomorrow\u2019s speech for a few reasons.&nbsp;&nbsp;For starters, the S&amp;P 500\u2019s track record after the past few Jackson Hole conferences has been uninspiring:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>S&amp;P 500 Performance Before and After Powell\u2019s Recent Jackson Hole Speeches<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"568\" height=\"116\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/SP-500-Performance-Jackson-Hole.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-210870 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/SP-500-Performance-Jackson-Hole.png 568w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/SP-500-Performance-Jackson-Hole-300x61.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 568px) 100vw, 568px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 568px; aspect-ratio: 568\/116;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"136\" height=\"116\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/SP-500-3-Year-Averages.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-210871 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 136px; aspect-ratio: 136\/116;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, three annual observations is hardly a robust sample size, but it is worth noting that the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was down four and five weeks after each of the last occurrences.\u00a0That may be attributable as much to September seasonality as it is to the speeches themselves, but those speeches indeed played a role in setting the tone for the weeks that follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A further concern arises from whether investors have put too much faith in a conflicting set of expectations.\u00a0It is clear that the basic economic scenario is for a soft landing.\u00a0Even though historical sightings of a soft landing are about as common as credible sightings of a Yeti, earnings estimates for the coming year are solidly higher \u2013 something that implies that we will avoid a recession.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet that basic scenario also implies that we should expect Fed Funds to be a full percentage point lower by the end of the year, implying that at least one of the remaining three FOMC meetings will offer a 50bp cut.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME futures<\/a>\u00a0imply a 93% probability of Fed Funds being 1% lower after the December meeting, though the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;mid=001&amp;clt=1&amp;action=EVENT_TRADER#\/market-details?market=g2&amp;id=658663572202412185.1251\">IBKR ForecastTrader<\/a>\u00a0shows a 34% chance that the rate will be above 4.625% at that point. (Seems like a potentially tradeable divergence, no?)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now ask yourself whether those expectations might be mutually exclusive.\u00a0It seems quite possible. To be fair, we began the year with an impossible conundrum \u2013 expectations for a solid economy AND six or seven rate cuts \u2013 but we\u2019ve done just fine because the economy delivered and the cuts weren\u2019t needed.\u00a0Now, when we\u2019re faced with the prospect of a slowing economy \u2013 even though the current\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\">Atlanta Fed GDPNow<\/a>\u00a0projects 2% growth this quarter \u2013 we are quite hopeful that aggressive Fed cuts will benefit investors instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And so we will find out if Chair Powell is willing to accommodate investors\u2019 hopes for those cuts, the cuts that many believe are necessary to forestall economic woes.\u00a0It is fair to expect that a 25-basis point cut will arrive next month, since Powell and other Fed officials have implied that is in the cards.\u00a0But what if he simply reiterates data dependence and a tendency towards rate cutting caution.\u00a0\u00a0That doesn\u2019t seem to fit with investors\u2019 expectations.\u00a0\u00a0Will we then need to root for lousy jobs numbers in two weeks to justify the need for cuts?\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jackson Hole has a reputation for being among the most challenging ski areas in the world.\u00a0Will Powell guide us towards a pleasant scenic ride, or perch us at the top of a treacherous couloir and leave us to our own devices?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A ski mountain looks very different whether you\u2019re at the bottom, the middle, or the top. The same can be said for markets.\u00a0&#8230; The lifts may be closed now, but we can once again call on Fed Chair Powell to be our mountain guide when he speaks tomorrow.\u00a0He might let us know whether we should continue to ride the chairlift higher, and if not, whether the route will be gentle or steep.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":206992,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[12767,77,3598,4109,44],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-210869","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-futures","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-chair-powell","17":"tag-fed","18":"tag-market-outlook","19":"tag-stock-market","20":"tag-stocks","21":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What to Expect When You\u2019re Expecting Jackson Hole<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A ski mountain looks very different whether you\u2019re at the bottom, the middle, or the top. The same can be said for markets.\u00a0... The lifts may be...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210869\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What to Expect When You\u2019re Expecting Jackson Hole | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A ski mountain looks very different whether you\u2019re at the bottom, the middle, or the top. The same can be said for markets.\u00a0... The lifts may be closed now, but we can once again call on Fed Chair Powell to be our mountain guide when he speaks tomorrow.\u00a0He might let us know whether we should continue to ride the chairlift higher, and if not, whether the route will be gentle or steep.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-jackson-hole\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-08-22T16:20:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-08-23T07:43:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/fed-blocks-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" 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