{"id":210364,"date":"2024-08-14T12:27:22","date_gmt":"2024-08-14T16:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=210364"},"modified":"2024-08-15T05:45:22","modified_gmt":"2024-08-15T09:45:22","slug":"the-new-pain-trade-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-new-pain-trade-2\/","title":{"rendered":"The New Pain Trade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It can be amazing how quickly investor sentiment can turn.\u00a0Two Fridays ago, we were concerned about whether a weakening jobs market was a harbinger for a looming recession.\u00a0Now we have complete faith in the Federal Reserve\u2019s ability to engineer a soft landing thanks to the simultaneous combination of a cooperative economy and aggressive rate cuts.\u00a0Considering that actual soft landings are about as common as credible Yeti sightings, it is quite possible that investors have boxed themselves into a new \u201cpain trade\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We came into today\u2019s trading with markets pricing in the certainty of a 25 basis point cut in September, along with a reasonable likelihood of a 50bp cut instead.\u00a0[If you\u2019re interested in trading on events like these, please check out the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/en\/home.php\">IBKR ForecastTrader<\/a>]\u00a0Never mind that neither the most recent Federal Reserve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20240612.htm\">Summary of Economic Projections<\/a> (better known as the \u201cdot plot\u201d) nor rhetoric from Fed officials explicitly back this assumption, this is what the market has decided for them.\u00a0Heck, the last dot plot, the one that showed a median forecast of one cut for all of 2024, was in June, and things changed since then. That\u2019s fair.\u00a0But then why does someone like Atlanta Fed President Bostic say that\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/markets\/fed-s-bostic-says-a-little-more-data-needed-to-support-cutting-rates\/ar-AA1oKbPz?ocid=BingNewsSerp\">he needs more data<\/a>\u00a0before considering any cuts or Fed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/markets\/fed-s-bowman-sees-upside-inflation-risk-signals-caution-on-cuts\/ar-AA1oA8Sc?ocid=BingNewsVerp\">Governor Bowman say<\/a>\u00a0that she \u201cwill remain cautious in my approach to considering adjustments to the current stance of policy\u201d?\u00a0Those are both consistent with a consensus-minded FOMC that is likely to cut rates, but not nearly as aggressively as liquidity addicted investors crave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is why I am concerned that investors have set the bar too high for Chair Powell\u2019s speech at Jackson Hole next week.\u00a0We have said many times that investors don\u2019t really want to hear from the supporting cast, they only want to hear from the lead actor, Powell.\u00a0Suppose he merely reaffirms the comments he made after the last FOMC meeting in July, implying that a 25bp \u201cadjustment\u201d cut in September was forthcoming, but little or nothing more?\u00a0What if he reminds investors that a 4.3% unemployment rate, while well above recent lows, is historically enviable, and that the Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDPNow estimate of 2.9% indicates a solid enough economy that hyper-accommodative policies are not warranted?\u00a0Are those the sort of things that investors want to hear?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of two things can happen as a result.\u00a0The market can cheer that the economy is robust.\u00a0But the investors already know that \u2013 they\u2019re hoping for rate cuts too.\u00a0Or, more likely, investors can fret about the idea that we\u2019re largely on our own when it comes to monetary policy.\u00a0Equity investors who fear that the economy is moving towards a recession will be concerned that the Fed is too slow to react, while short-term interest rates, like 2-year Treasuries, would likely rise if rate cuts need to be priced out.\u00a0Neither is friendly to equity markets, especially those that have become very crowded the current consensus trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We should also let recent history be our guide.\u00a0Chair Powell used\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-stop-doubting-my-resolve-to-cool-the-porridge\/\">2022\u2019s Jackson Hole address<\/a>\u00a0to remind investors about the Fed\u2019s resolve to begin its rate-hiking cycle in earnest.\u00a0At that time, traders were hopeful for a Fed pivot away from their tightening bias and were\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/goldilocks-feeds-the-bears\/\">sadly disappointed<\/a>\u00a0when Powell pushed back hard against those hopes.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, if you\u2019re betting on a soft landing combined with aggressive rate cuts, be wary ahead of next week.\u00a0But I suppose, in the meantime, why let those concerns get in the way of a freshly renewed FOMO-driven momentum fest?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two Fridays ago, we were concerned about whether a weakening jobs market was a harbinger for a looming recession.\u00a0Now we have complete faith in the Federal Reserve\u2019s ability to engineer a soft landing thanks to the simultaneous combination of a cooperative economy and aggressive rate cuts.\u00a0Considering that actual soft landings are about as common as credible Yeti sightings, it is quite possible that investors have boxed themselves into a new \u201cpain trade\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":182332,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-210364","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The New Pain Trade 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/federal-reserve.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=210364"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210364\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/182332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=210364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=210364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=210364"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=210364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}