{"id":210131,"date":"2024-08-08T11:39:52","date_gmt":"2024-08-08T15:39:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=210131"},"modified":"2024-08-21T04:00:49","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T08:00:49","slug":"quit-your-whining","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/quit-your-whining\/","title":{"rendered":"Quit Your Whining"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>With the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) leaping about 1% on today\u2019s open thanks to a data point that typically goes unnoticed, I have an important question for the buyers: are you the same people who were clamoring for an emergency 50 basis point rate cut on Monday?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I usually prefer to start writing these daily pieces after the market opens because it gives me a clearer picture of the market\u2019s direction, but I\u2019m starting this piece a bit earlier than usual because I can barely contain myself.\u00a0Yes, this relatively significant rally is the direct result of weekly jobless claims coming in with a net decline of 6,000 after revisions.\u00a0Ask yourself when you last paid much attention to this data point, let alone launched a huge rally or decline in its wake.\u00a0I can\u2019t remember this big of a reaction to this pedestrian report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But then again, these are not normal times.\u00a0Yesterday\u2019s 2.5% high\/low trading range in SPX is Exhibit A.\u00a0We\u2019re still working through the aftereffects of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/carried-away-then-carried-out\/\">huge carry trade unwind<\/a>\u00a0that has rocked global markets since the Bank of Japan raised rates last week.\u00a0According to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=28a207136109ad43JmltdHM9MTcyMzA3NTIwMCZpZ3VpZD0wNzgxOWY2MS1jMzdhLTZkMDctMjhiOC04Y2Y0Yzc3YTYzNWMmaW5zaWQ9NTIwNQ&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=3&amp;fclid=07819f61-c37a-6d07-28b8-8cf4c77a635c&amp;psq=jpm+carry+trade+75%25&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9maW5hbmNlLnlhaG9vLmNvbS9uZXdzL3RocmVlLXF1YXJ0ZXJzLWdsb2JhbC1jYXJyeS10cmFkZS0wNzU5MzczNDEuaHRtbA&amp;ntb=1\">published reports<\/a>, JPMorgan (JPM) analysts estimate that the carry trade is now 75% unwound.\u00a0I\u2019m not sure how they arrived at that figure, since currencies trade over-the-counter and it is extraordinarily difficult to know exactly what is collateralizing debt (the most extreme examples of this are\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=bd72db9d2f9bd850JmltdHM9MTcyMzA3NTIwMCZpZ3VpZD0wNzgxOWY2MS1jMzdhLTZkMDctMjhiOC04Y2Y0Yzc3YTYzNWMmaW5zaWQ9NTI0MQ&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=3&amp;fclid=07819f61-c37a-6d07-28b8-8cf4c77a635c&amp;psq=long+term+capital+management&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9lbi53aWtpcGVkaWEub3JnL3dpa2kvTG9uZy1UZXJtX0NhcGl0YWxfTWFuYWdlbWVudA&amp;ntb=1\">Long Term Capital Management<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=ccb5c982bc2bdc86JmltdHM9MTcyMzA3NTIwMCZpZ3VpZD0wNzgxOWY2MS1jMzdhLTZkMDctMjhiOC04Y2Y0Yzc3YTYzNWMmaW5zaWQ9NTIwMg&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=3&amp;fclid=07819f61-c37a-6d07-28b8-8cf4c77a635c&amp;psq=archegos&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9lbi53aWtpcGVkaWEub3JnL3dpa2kvQXJjaGVnb3NfQ2FwaXRhbF9NYW5hZ2VtZW50&amp;ntb=1\">Archegos<\/a>).\u00a0As a result, even analysts at a bank with much more transparency into these mechanisms acknowledge that their data is not perfectly reliable.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One way that I have been tracking the stresses that may be resulting from the carry trades is the Tokyo Exchange TOPIX Bank Index (TPNBNK).\u00a0It has drastically underperformed the other key Japanese indices, the Nikkei 225 (N225) and TOPIX (TOPX).\u00a0Since July 31<sup>st<\/sup>, the day that the BOJ raised rates 25 bp when the market had priced in roughly a 50% chance of a 10bp hike, triggering the carry trade unwind, the broader benchmarks are both down about -10% while the bank index is down about -20%.\u00a0Japanese bank investors are not ready to declare an \u201call clear\u201d yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Since August 1<sup>st<\/sup>, 2024:\u00a0TPNBNK (red\/green 10-minute candles), TOPIX (purple line), N225 (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"756\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/TPNBNK-1100x756.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-210135 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/TPNBNK-1100x756.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/TPNBNK-700x481.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/TPNBNK-300x206.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/TPNBNK-768x528.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/TPNBNK-1536x1056.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/TPNBNK.png 1754w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/756;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Now consider this morning\u2019s rally in light of the panicky commentary from a wide range of market pundits earlier this week.\u00a0\u00a0I was particularly dismayed on Monday morning to see my former professor, Jeremy Siegel, clamoring for an immediate 75 bp cut and another 75bp in September.\u00a0His assertion is that the neutral rate is somewhere in the 3.5-4% range, and that the Fed needs to get us there ASAP.\u00a0I defer to his superior skills as an economist about the proper level for the neutral rate, but as a long-time, full-time market practitioner, those moves would have completely spooked the market.\u00a0Abandoning the path that the FOMC has painstakingly laid out would have been interpreted as panic.\u00a0\u201cWhat do they know that we don\u2019t?!?!\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Chair Powell knows something that we don\u2019t or believes that a faster pace of rate cuts is warranted, he has more than ample opportunity to tell us why when he gives his annual Jackson Hole address in two weeks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I firmly believe that US-centric investors were too quick to blame Monday\u2019s declines in both stocks and bond yields on recessionary fears.\u00a0Stock traders have been quick to pounce on any rally since then, even if they have shown a tendency to fade, and the subsequent jump in bond yields show that the recent plunges were more about flight to safety and carry trade closeouts.\u00a0Neither point to major concerns about a looming recession.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ll leave economic punditry to economists but since the Fed has forced us all to become data dependent \u2013 if they are, so must we be \u2013 my read of the data is that it\u2019s mixed, not dire.\u00a0In a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/stock-market-capitulation\/\">podcast<\/a> taped earlier this week, my colleague Jose Torres noted that the ISM Services report contrasted with last week\u2019s downbeat ISM Manufacturing report.\u00a0The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\">Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDPNow<\/a>\u00a0currently projects a 2.9% rise in GDP.\u00a0It does appear that the conflicting data could certainly indicate that the economy is at an inflection point.\u00a0I will by no means rule out the possibility or even likelihood of a recession.\u00a0But it is premature, if not flat out wrong, to say that those fears are an overarching concern.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And now that SPX is up another \u00be% since I started typing, can we say that today\u2019s number has quelled the looming recession fears?\u00a0\u00a0Absolutely not.\u00a0Can we say that stock traders remain fixated on buying dips and chasing rallies?\u00a0Absolutely yes.\u00a0Does the latter indicate that we desperately need rate cuts to keep markets afloat?\u00a0C\u2019mon, quit your whining.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the S&#038;P 500 (SPX) leaping about 1% on today\u2019s open thanks to a data point that typically goes unnoticed, I have an important question for the buyers: are you the same people who were clamoring for an emergency 50 basis point rate cut on Monday?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":194135,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,14,16,14700,18,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[1945,12767,77,1685,3598,207,44,17575],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-210131","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-etfs","9":"category-forex","10":"category-ibkr-market-insights","11":"category-macro","12":"category-north-america","13":"category-options","14":"category-region","15":"category-securities","16":"category-stocks","17":"category-text-articles","18":"category-traders-insight","19":"tag-bank-of-japan","20":"tag-chair-powell","21":"tag-fed","22":"tag-macro","23":"tag-market-outlook","24":"tag-spx","25":"tag-stocks","26":"tag-tokyo-exchange","27":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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