{"id":210011,"date":"2024-08-05T08:34:14","date_gmt":"2024-08-05T12:34:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=210011"},"modified":"2024-08-06T03:35:10","modified_gmt":"2024-08-06T07:35:10","slug":"chart-advisor-bitcoin-yesterday-today-and-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-bitcoin-yesterday-today-and-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart advisor: Bitcoin: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Adrian Zdu\u0144czyk, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ BTC, SPX Correlation Leads Reversals?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ BTC SMA200 Reversion: BTFD?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ \u201cRemember To \u20bfuy in September\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

BTC, SPX Correlation Leads Reversals?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: StockCharts.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin, a digital currency created in 2008, operates on a decentralized network, allowing direct transactions without banks. Often referred to as digital gold, it\u2019s finally found enormous interest from leading ETF providers like BlackRock, Grayscale, or Fidelity \u2013 also thanks to regulatory progress, paving the way for global adoption. With the 2023 performance of +160%, now YTD +46% at $62,000, it is supported by the 50-week trend at $50,147 and the 200-week mean at $37,735 \u2013 both rising firmly, indicating an uninterrupted bull market. A severe 7-week SPX correlation coefficient dip of -0.9 aligned with the summer rally of July, netting a +3% ascent (avg July gain +8.48%) and a +30% rally trough-to-peak. So far, since the cycle low (November 2022), a strongly negative SPX-BTC correlation has marked the end of corrections, as evidenced by the correlations at $16,500 (-0.81) in Nov 2022, $28,000 (-0.92) in Oct 2023, and $62,000 (-0.9) in July 2024. With a 5-month falling channel pattern in sight, history is not likely to repeat itself, but it may rhyme.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

BTC SMA200 Reversion: BTFD?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The shorter-term technicals reveal that the 200-day SMA support is $61,313, whereas the RSI is 41, indicating moderate buying interest, with the 50-day momentum at 45. Regarding volatility, the daily ATR is $2600, and the 50-day volatility is curling up at 2220, still encouraging a non-trending environment and a range-bound regime. While near-term expectations are sideways-focused and influenced by the latest FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged at 525-550bps, buying Bitcoin mean-reversion dips in the context of rising SMA200 has led to reversals, pushing BTC higher during this cycle. It might be worth noting that the recent price action mean-reverting moves are in line with the seasonal expectations of the weak Q3, with September as the worst month of the year in sight.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRemember To \u20bfuy in September\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: The \u20bfirb Nest<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin shows a seasonal pattern similar to the S&P 500 or NASDAQ, with September being the only negative month, averaging a -6.45 % loss over the past 13 years (2011-2023). Historically, BTC performs best from October through May, mirroring U.S. equities. The best strategy is to “Buy in October” and sell by June, with notable gains in October and November following September’s dip. Recent trends indicate weak performance from July to September, influenced by high interest rates and economic slowdown. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keeping the expected Q4 performance of Bitcoin at +50%, and a positive outlook scoped by the godfather of seasonal studies Jeff Hirsch, for 2024 as the election year returning +12.8% since 1949, Bitcoin seems to be benefiting from the abnormal rallies in major indices through the mean of mostly strong and positive correlation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year, the mantra \u201cRemember To \u20bfuy in September\u201d served us well. Will it do similar now?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 5th August 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin, a digital currency created in 2008, operates on a decentralized network, allowing direct transactions without banks. 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