{"id":209975,"date":"2024-08-02T11:54:10","date_gmt":"2024-08-02T15:54:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=209975"},"modified":"2024-08-28T15:19:50","modified_gmt":"2024-08-28T19:19:50","slug":"that-was-the-week-that-was","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/that-was-the-week-that-was\/","title":{"rendered":"That Was the Week That Was"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Where to begin?\u00a0The 2-day bout of volatility, the good and the bad kind?\u00a0 The continuing \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-routation-continues\/\">routation<\/a>\u201d?\u00a0 Apple (AAPL) eking out a gain, though muted because so much good news had been priced in?\u00a0 Amazon (AMZN) getting whacked because they also had so much good news priced in yet came short on guidance?\u00a0 The Nikkei getting thrashed, down over -5% last night and having a greater than 10% correction in about 3 weeks?\u00a0 Or the shockingly weak jobs numbers?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s unpack the themes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Regarding the 2-day swing<\/em>: If we were in a bear market \u2013 which to be clear, we are not \u2013 I would have called Wednesday\u2019s move a bear market rally.&nbsp; It had that sort of panicky, over-aggressive buying that characterizes the short, sharp, and furious upward moves that punctuate bear markets.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>I believe that the buying was highly abetted by month-end factors \u2013 institutional accounts may have felt that they reduced their exposures too much and wanted to get back onsides before they had to report.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Much of the recent selling was related to the unwinding of the carry trade.\u00a0 Until Wednesday, the yen and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) were moving in rough lockstep.\u00a0 As the yen strengthened, the NQ futures fell.\u00a0 Hedge funds borrowing in yen to buy big tech were clearly unwinding, though the Bank of Japan meeting and helpful comments from Microsoft (MSFT) &#8212; ok, they were helpful for Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD, if not MSFT itself &#8212; broke the relationship.\u00a0 It seems to have resumed on Thursday \u2013 see the chart below.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The plunging Nikkei 225 (NKY) is clearly another side effect of the imploding carry trade.\u00a0 It was easy to borrow a weakening yen to buy stocks that were rising because the yen was sinking.\u00a0 That unraveled in a hurry, and in a very messy way last night.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Forced selling becomes indiscriminate selling!<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>20-Days, JPY (white), Front-Month NQ Futures (magenta)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"609\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture1-1-1100x609.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-209978 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture1-1-1100x609.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture1-1-700x387.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture1-1-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture1-1-768x425.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture1-1.png 1522w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/609;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In contrast, yesterday\u2019s problems were a case of careful what you wish for.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>On Wednesday, Chair Powell confirmed that a September cut is highly likely (even if the FOMC statement didn\u2019t) and traders priced in cuts at each of the next three remaining 2024 meetings.\u00a0 Mind you, that was not the cause of Wednesday\u2019s rally.\u00a0 The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) closed about where it was before the presser.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Then yesterday\u2019s weekly claims and the ISM report, normally not market movers, hit home hard.\u00a0 Since the market was already pricing in 3 cuts, we have put ourselves in a situation where bad news is bad.\u00a0 If we\u2019re already expecting cuts when the soft-landing narrative was in place, can we expect more if the economy turns south?\u00a0 Or is it more a case of the Fed potentially being late to the party?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The recent rally in bonds \u2013 2-yr yields are down 85 basis points since the end of June (!) and 10-yr yields down over 58 bp in that timeframe \u2013 is another \u201ctell\u201d that <strong>fixed income investors are pricing in economic weakness<\/strong>, with a flight to safety thrown in for good measure<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>One of the things I\u2019ve noticed over the years is that when stocks and bonds tell different messages about the economy, it\u2019s the bonds that are more likely to be correct.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Having spent most of my career as an options market maker, this is where I view things through a volatility-oriented lens.&nbsp; Even though the two moves were of similar magnitude, VIX rallied much more yesterday than it fell on Wednesday.&nbsp; And the overnight moves created even more angst, with VIX over 20.5 as I type this!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>I have always believed that <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/what-me-worry\/?query=vix%20not%20a%20fear%20gauge&amp;query_id=40a9e4a71954da204563a5eee5b79805&amp;index=prod_ibkrcampus_en&amp;user_token=anonymous-ab2cddb6-49e7-4567-a8d5-7379570809cb\">VIX is not a fear gauge, it just plays one on TV<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>That said, it is the <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/do-we-really-need-a-one-day-vix\/?query=institution%20demand%20for%20hedges&amp;query_id=c2fa1b1f7d808c935856d207c23d619e&amp;index=prod_ibkrcampus_en&amp;user_token=anonymous-ab2cddb6-49e7-4567-a8d5-7379570809cb\">best proxy for institutions\u2019 demand for hedging insurance<\/a>.\u00a0 And that demand increases when portfolio managers get fearful.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They\u2019ve been getting increasingly more concerned about something.\u00a0<ul><li>A seasonal swoon?<\/li><\/ul><ul><li>A belated concern that the last leg of the rally was a \u201cblowoff top\u201d?<\/li><\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The new propensity for stocks to get clobbered even after good earnings reports?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/socially-acceptable-volatility\/?query=socially%20acceptable%20volatility&amp;query_id=8790ba607949f9bb67ce412e825d7d6e&amp;index=prod_ibkrcampus_en&amp;user_token=anonymous-ab2cddb6-49e7-4567-a8d5-7379570809cb\">Socially Acceptable Volatility<\/a>\u201d: Even though volatility measures are agnostic \u2013 volatility measures up AND down moves equally \u2013 investors don\u2019t.\u00a0 I termed Wednesday\u2019s move socially acceptable because we went up.\u00a0 Markets are <em>supposed<\/em> to go up.\u00a0 So even though volatility increased, VIX traded down.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SteveSosnick\/status\/1819060829733753183\">Yesterday was plain old, scary volatility<\/a>, even though the moves were of similar magnitude, so VIX shot higher.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c<strong>Routation<\/strong>\u201d \u2013 This is the term that I have been using to describe how there is <em>still solid rotation from growth to value underneath the market\u2019s surface<\/em>.&nbsp; The problem is that the megacap tech stocks grew to such a heavy weight in cap-weighted indices like SPX and NDX that any sustained selling in those names would drag the markets lower no matter what.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>8 names (Mag 7 + AVGO) comprise about 1\/3 of SPX and \u00bd of NDX.\u00a0 That means that many who have been buying SPY or <em>index funds have not been nearly as diversified as they might have thought<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/has-healthy-rotation-become-potentially-toxic\/\">I warned against this<\/a>, terming the most recent leg of the rally \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/stock-market-jenga\/\">Stock Market Jenga<\/a>\u201d as the indices rose higher on an ever-shrinking foundation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-actually-rotation-despite-the-rout-routation\/\">Routation<\/a> made that apparent when we started to turn lower a couple of weeks ago.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earnings are a problem.&nbsp; Or more specifically, investors\u2019 reaction to them is a problem.&nbsp; Sure, we\u2019re getting our usual high percentage of EPS beats, but that\u2019s no longer sufficient.&nbsp; Stocks that are priced to perfection require perfection, so the slightest slip-up in revenues, EPS, or guidance is enough to trip up stocks that have sustained huge rallies \u2013 especially in big tech and semiconductors<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Think about GOOGL, which beat and fell because of comments about AI spending.\u00a0 And then MSFT, which did the same.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Now consider semis like AMD and QCOM, which initially rallied after solid reports, then got throttled after investors digested them<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Not to mention INTC, which is an outright disaster, an ongoing trainwreck<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>When we\u2019re priced for perfection, anything short of perfection gets punished<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, a few quick comments about this morning\u2019s payrolls report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>I\u2019m not certain that this is a hard landing, but it certainly is a bumpy one<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nonfarm Payrolls rose far less than expected (+114,000 vs. 175k consensus)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The jump in the Unemployment Rate to 4.3% (4.1% expected) triggered the Sahm Rule, a noted recession indicator, though <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/articles\/sahm-rule-recession-4b114b90?mod=search_headline\">Dr. Sahm herself is calling it into question<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Is today the day that another recession indicator, the 2-10 inversion, disappears?\u00a0 We momentarily touched 5bp, it\u2019s now about 10bp.\u00a0 While that potential recession indicator has been gestating for quite a while, remember that the recession only begins when the curve disinverts.\u00a0 (Not rooting for this, but we have to be aware of it)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>2-year Treasury Yields Minus 10-year Treasury Yields with NBER Recession Starts (red) and Ends (green), Since 1985<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"655\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture2-1100x655.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-209979 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture2-1100x655.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture2-700x417.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture2-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture2-768x457.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture2.png 1526w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/655;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg, Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bottom line: It feels like a sea change in sentiment is occurring.\u00a0 I can\u2019t be certain that this is anything more than seasonal angst right now, but the 29 VIX is flashing a huge red flag.\u00a0 The demand for volatility protection exploded relative to the available supply, as evidenced by the steeply inverted VIX futures curve.\u00a0 (The October bump, which was quite noticeable, now seems quite minor).\u00a0 There are a lot of people saying \u201cget me out\u201d, or worse, many of them being forced out.\u00a0 That can make for profitable trades, but only for the truly bold and risk tolerant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>VIX Futures Term Structure, Today (yellow), Last Week (red, top), With Changes Below<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"861\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture3-1100x861.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-209981 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture3-1100x861.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture3-700x548.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture3-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture3-768x601.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture3-1536x1202.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture3.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/861;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Where to begin?  The 2-day bout of volatility, the good and the bad kind?  The continuing \u201croutation\u201d?  Apple (AAPL) eking out a gain, though muted because so much good news had been priced in? Amazon (AMZN) getting whacked because they also had so much good news priced in yet came short on guidance? The Nikkei getting thrashed, down over -5% last night and having a greater than 10% correction in about 3 weeks?  Or the shockingly weak jobs numbers?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":209981,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-209975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>That Was the Week That Was | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209975\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"That Was the Week That Was | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Where to begin? The 2-day bout of volatility, the good and the bad kind? The continuing \u201croutation\u201d? Apple (AAPL) eking out a gain, though muted because so much good news had been priced in? Amazon (AMZN) getting whacked because they also had so much good news priced in yet came short on guidance? The Nikkei getting thrashed, down over -5% last night and having a greater than 10% correction in about 3 weeks? Or the shockingly weak jobs numbers?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/that-was-the-week-that-was\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-08-02T15:54:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-08-28T19:19:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture3.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1252\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n\t<meta 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