{"id":209897,"date":"2024-07-31T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-31T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=209897"},"modified":"2024-08-28T15:20:17","modified_gmt":"2024-08-28T19:20:17","slug":"gold-diggers-ai-gold-ahead-of-fomc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/gold-diggers-ai-gold-ahead-of-fomc\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Diggers > AI Gold Ahead of FOMC"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Today\u2019s theme song: Gold Digger by Kanye West<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far today, we see three key themes.  First, while Microsoft (MSFT<\/span>) was the latest stock to raise concerns that spending on artificial intelligence was slow to result in profitability, investors greatly preferred to hear from AMD that the spending nonetheless continues apace.  Second, the relationship between tech stocks and the yen reversed, as the yen rallied sharply after the Bank of Japan raised rates overnight.  Third, none of the month-end vibe shift could be occurring if investors had serious concerns about today\u2019s FOMC meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In yesterday’s piece<\/a> we highlighted the risk that MSFT could report good numbers yet sell-off anyway.  That proved to be the case.  We also noted, but without detail, that AMD earnings could also prove consequential.  How\u2019s that for burying the lead?   A classic investment adage is that when there\u2019s a gold rush (in this case, AI), it\u2019s usually more profitable to invest in those who supply picks and shovels and other tools to the miners (semiconductors) than it is to mine the gold itself (MSFT and friends).  To be quite fair, it\u2019s been highly profitable to invest in both for quite some time.  But after Alphabet\u2019s (GOOG<\/span>, GOOGL<\/span>) comments last week<\/a> and MSFT\u2019s cloud division\u2019s results yesterday, it was becoming questionable about when these expensive investments in chips, data centers, and software will pay off. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then AMD told us that they are selling chips as fast as they can make them, and that their order book remains full.  It does seem unsustainable that companies would continue to load up on the infrastructure required to develop and implement AI if that isn\u2019t an especially profitable activity, but that trend doesn\u2019t seem to be abating yet.  MSFT confirmed<\/a> that they will be increasing their aggressive capital spending nonetheless.  Throw in a well-timed Nvidia (NVDA) upgrade from Morgan Stanley<\/a> along with investors who might have decided that they no longer want to appear underinvested ahead of month-end, and off we go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s rally broke the recent relationship between a stronger yen and lower NDX.  There was a solid reason for that relationship \u2013 many leveraged investors had been borrowing low-yielding yen and using the proceeds to buy higher yielding or higher momentum assets \u2013 and the rapid rise of the yen \u2013 from about 162 to 152 in a matter of days \u2013 forced many to exit those trades.  That ended today.  The yen rose sharply today, trading briefly below 150 after the BOJ raised rates by 10bp, but that had no impact on the mad rush back into tech this morning.  Again, we wonder how much of that was considered \u201cexcess\u201d de-risking ahead of month-end, but once again, tech momentum triumphs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet none of this would be occurring today if investors weren\u2019t sanguine about this afternoon\u2019s FOMC meeting.  Bluntly, if folks were truly worried about what Chair Powell might say this afternoon, then they wouldn\u2019t be bidding up stocks with abandon.  And it\u2019s not just stocks.  Treasury yields are lower across the curve, led by the long end.  While this morning\u2019s rally has pushed SPX back into positive territory for July (up about 1%), and cut NDX\u2019s losses to about -1.7%, the moves in rates have been quite dramatic.  The 10-year yield is down about 35 basis points and the 2-year down about 40bp during the month.  Much of that comes from the assumption that the Fed will cut rates at each of the three remaining meetings this year.  Considering that this is at odds with the most recent \u201cdot plot\u201d, which projected just one, a key feature of today\u2019s press conference will be to see if Powell confirms the FOMC\u2019s projections or subtly backs the market\u2019s enthusiasm for cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considering today\u2019s broad-based equities rally, it is not surprising to see options traders carrying that enthusiasm into this afternoon and the rest of the week.  The IBKR Probability Lab shows peak probabilities for SPX options expiring today and on Friday to be above current levels, about 5545 for today (vs. 5525 now) and 5575 for Friday.  Investors are expecting \u201cGoldilocks in a Suit<\/a>\u201d to tell us that the economic porridge is not too hot and not too cold \u2013 just right. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring July 31st<\/sup>, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring August 2nd, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

So far today, we see three key themes.\u00a0 First, while Microsoft (MSFT) was the latest stock to raise concerns that spending on artificial intelligence was slow to result in profitability, investors greatly preferred to hear from AMD that the spending nonetheless continues apace.\u00a0 Second, the relationship between tech stocks and the yen reversed, as the yen rallied sharply after the Bank of Japan raised rates overnight.\u00a0 Third, none of the month-end vibe shift could be occurring if investors had serious concerns about today\u2019s FOMC meeting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":185776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-209897","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGold Diggers > AI Gold Ahead of FOMC | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"So far today, we see three key themes.\u00a0 First, while Microsoft (MSFT) was the latest stock to 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/bear-and-bull-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209897","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=209897"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209897\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/185776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=209897"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=209897"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=209897"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=209897"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}