{"id":209620,"date":"2024-07-25T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-25T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=209620"},"modified":"2024-07-29T04:04:46","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T08:04:46","slug":"whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/","title":{"rendered":"Who\u2019s Correct?\u00a0 Stocks or Bonds or Copper or Yen?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>There are times when the best market move seems crystal clear.&nbsp; For a while it was to buy big tech stocks, close your eyes, and hold on.&nbsp; As we learned last week and yesterday, that of course works until it doesn\u2019t.&nbsp; Then there are times when the path is much murkier.&nbsp; That\u2019s what we\u2019re looking at now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This morning\u2019s equity market has been trying its best to digest yesterday\u2019s rout. As I type this, the major tech stocks recovered from an early swoon while small caps led the way.\u00a0 Although the final outcomes were worse than <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-routation-continues\/\">what we noted around midday<\/a> yesterday, declining stocks never outpaced advancers at the sort of levels that we see during extreme selloffs.\u00a0 Even as the S&amp;P 500 (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"SPX\">SPX<\/span>) had its first drop of greater than -2% <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/pressure-drop\/\">since December 2022<\/a>, the ratio of losers to winners was about 4:1.\u00a0 Today, that ratio has flipped to about 2.5:1 positive, with the Russell 2000 up about +2% and the Russell 1000 Value ETF (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"VONV\">VONV<\/span>) is up about +1% even as its Growth counterpart (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"VONG\">VONG<\/span>) is roughly flat. The rotation continues, even as the \u201d<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/pressure-drop\/\">routation<\/a>\u201d takes a breather.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It makes sense that the value and small cap sectors would outperform on a day where we received some positive economic news.\u00a0 Second quarter GDP came out at 2.8%, well above the 2.0% consensus estimate.\u00a0 That said, according to my colleague <a href=\"\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/\">Jose Torres<\/a>,\u00a0 inventories almost entirely accounted for the bump.\u00a0 Perhaps that is why bonds barely flinched, remaining higher (lower yields) after an overnight flight to safety, and why probabilities for rate cuts barely budged.\u00a0 Data dependent or not, the market has decided that rate cuts are coming, even if that data included a 2.9% quarterly rise in the Core PCE Price index (down from last quarter\u2019s 3.7% but above the 2.7% consensus.\u00a0 Futures continue to price in a slight probability for a cut next week, the certainty of a cut in September, and a high likelihood for cuts at the two subsequent meetings this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking of bonds, we have seen a remarkable development in recent weeks.&nbsp; The yield curve, at least as measured by the spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields, has been disinverting in a hurry.&nbsp; The 2-year yields exceeded 10-year yields by about 50 basis points at the start of the month.&nbsp; As of yesterday, that was down to about 14bp before improving.&nbsp; That might sound great, but the chart below reminds us that recessions begin after the curve returns to normality.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spread-between-2-year-and-10-year-treasury-yields-with-nber-recession-start-red-and-end-green-dates\"><strong><em>Spread between 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yields with NBER Recession Start (red) and End (green) Dates<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"633\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture4-2-1100x633.png\" alt=\"Spread between 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yields with NBER Recession Start (red) and End (green) Dates\" class=\"wp-image-209624 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture4-2-1100x633.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture4-2-700x403.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture4-2-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture4-2-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture4-2-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture4-2.png 1629w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/633;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if the backward-looking economic numbers show signs of strength, key commodities markets are saying otherwise.\u00a0 Copper can be a useful tool for gauging global demand, and after a huge run this spring, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/everything-is-ai-play-copper-and-utilities-edition\/\">fueled by AI enthusiasm<\/a>, that commodity has been steadily given back its recent gains:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-comex-july-2024-copper-futures-1-year-candles\"><strong><em>COMEX July 2024 Copper Futures, 1-Year Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"752\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture3-3-1100x752.png\" alt=\"COMEX July 2024 Copper Futures, 1-Year Candles\" class=\"wp-image-209623 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture3-3-1100x752.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture3-3-700x478.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture3-3-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture3-3-768x525.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture3-3-1536x1050.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture3-3.png 1756w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/752;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Actually, commodities overall have been falling.&nbsp; One key measure is the Bloomberg Commodities Index (AIGCI on TWS), which has also been dropping.&nbsp; It\u2019s not just copper:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bloomberg-commodity-index-1-year-line\"><strong><em>Bloomberg Commodity Index, 1-Year Line<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"799\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture2-4-1100x799.png\" alt=\"Bloomberg Commodity Index, 1-Year Line\" class=\"wp-image-209622 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture2-4-1100x799.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture2-4-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture2-4-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture2-4-768x558.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture2-4-1536x1116.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture2-4.png 1762w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/799;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These charts bode well for inflation, but not economic activity.&nbsp; A data-dependent FOMC would likely consider the drops in commodities as part of the overall disinflationary trends, but it is not clear to what extent they might use them as a signal of current economic prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have been <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/payrolls-report-raises-the-stake-for-the-next-fomc-meeting\/\">asserting for weeks<\/a> that next week\u2019s FOMC meeting promises to be quite consequential.\u00a0 Even if rates don\u2019t change, the rhetoric should offer key clues to the degree to which the group is concerned about economic growth and whether they deem inflationary conditions.\u00a0 But in the short-term, watch the Japanese Yen for clues.\u00a0\u00a0 It is clear that carry traders, those who borrow low-yielding yen to finance higher yielding or riskier investments, are driving the tech market bus right now.\u00a0 Don\u2019t believe me?\u00a0 I\u2019ll drop the mic with the following chart:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-past-13-days-japanese-yen-15-minute-blue-white-candles-vs-september-nq-futures-yellow-line\"><strong><em>Past 13 Days, Japanese Yen (15-Minute blue\/white candles) vs. September NQ futures (yellow line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"631\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture1-15-1100x631.png\" alt=\"Past 13 Days, Japanese Yen (15-Minute blue\/white candles) vs. September NQ futures (yellow line)\" class=\"wp-image-209621 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture1-15-1100x631.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture1-15-700x402.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture1-15-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture1-15-768x441.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture1-15-1536x881.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Picture1-15.png 1630w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/631;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are times when the best market move seems crystal clear.  For a while it was to buy big tech stocks, close your eyes, and hold on.  As we learned last week and yesterday, that of course works until it doesn\u2019t.  Then there are times when the path is much murkier.  That\u2019s what we\u2019re looking at now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":116504,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,3],"tags":[45,1220,44,292],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-209620","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-bonds","14":"tag-copper","15":"tag-stocks","16":"tag-yen","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Who\u2019s Correct?\u00a0 Stocks or Bonds or Copper or Yen?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There are times when the best market move seems crystal clear. For a while it was to buy big tech stocks, close your eyes, and hold on. As we learned...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209620\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Who\u2019s Correct?\u00a0 Stocks or Bonds or Copper or Yen? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There are times when the best market move seems crystal clear. For a while it was to buy big tech stocks, close your eyes, and hold on. As we learned last week and yesterday, that of course works until it doesn\u2019t. Then there are times when the path is much murkier. That\u2019s what we\u2019re looking at now.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-25T15:15:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-07-29T08:04:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/chaos.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Who\u2019s Correct?\u00a0 Stocks or Bonds or Copper or Yen?\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2024-07-25T15:15:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2024-07-29T08:04:46+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 732,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 2,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/chaos.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"bonds\",\n\t                \"Copper\",\n\t                \"stocks\",\n\t                \"Yen\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Insights\",\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Who\u2019s Correct?\u00a0 Stocks or Bonds or Copper or Yen? | IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/chaos.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2024-07-25T15:15:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2024-07-29T08:04:46+00:00\",\n\t            \"description\": \"There are times when the best market move seems crystal clear. For a while it was to buy big tech stocks, close your eyes, and hold on. As we learned last week and yesterday, that of course works until it doesn\u2019t. Then there are times when the path is much murkier. That\u2019s what we\u2019re looking at now.\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"ReadAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\\\/\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\\\/#primaryimage\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/chaos.jpg\",\n\t            \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/chaos.jpg\",\n\t            \"width\": 1000,\n\t            \"height\": 563\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebSite\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"SearchAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"EntryPoint\",\n\t                        \"urlTemplate\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"\n\t                    },\n\t                    \"query-input\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"PropertyValueSpecification\",\n\t                        \"valueRequired\": true,\n\t                        \"valueName\": \"search_term_string\"\n\t                    }\n\t                }\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Organization\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"alternateName\": \"IBKR\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"logo\": {\n\t                \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t                \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\n\t                \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"width\": 669,\n\t                \"height\": 669,\n\t                \"caption\": \"Interactive Brokers\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"publishingPrinciples\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/about-ibkr-campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"ethicsPolicy\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/cyber-security-notice\\\/\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Person\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Steve is the Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.\",\n\t            \"sameAs\": [\n\t                \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkr.com\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/steve-sosnick\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Who\u2019s Correct?\u00a0 Stocks or Bonds or Copper or Yen?","description":"There are times when the best market move seems crystal clear. For a while it was to buy big tech stocks, close your eyes, and hold on. As we learned...","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209620\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Who\u2019s Correct?\u00a0 Stocks or Bonds or Copper or Yen? | IBKR Campus US","og_description":"There are times when the best market move seems crystal clear. For a while it was to buy big tech stocks, close your eyes, and hold on. As we learned last week and yesterday, that of course works until it doesn\u2019t. Then there are times when the path is much murkier. That\u2019s what we\u2019re looking at now.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/","og_site_name":"IBKR Campus US","article_published_time":"2024-07-25T15:15:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-07-29T08:04:46+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1000,"height":563,"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/chaos.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Steve Sosnick","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Steve Sosnick","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/"},"author":{"name":"Steve Sosnick","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549"},"headline":"Who\u2019s Correct?\u00a0 Stocks or Bonds or Copper or Yen?","datePublished":"2024-07-25T15:15:00+00:00","dateModified":"2024-07-29T08:04:46+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/"},"wordCount":732,"commentCount":2,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/chaos.jpg","keywords":["bonds","Copper","stocks","Yen"],"articleSection":["IBKR Insights","Macro","North America","Region","Securities","Traders' Insight"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/","name":"Who\u2019s Correct?\u00a0 Stocks or Bonds or Copper or Yen? | IBKR Campus US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/chaos.jpg","datePublished":"2024-07-25T15:15:00+00:00","dateModified":"2024-07-29T08:04:46+00:00","description":"There are times when the best market move seems crystal clear. For a while it was to buy big tech stocks, close your eyes, and hold on. As we learned last week and yesterday, that of course works until it doesn\u2019t. Then there are times when the path is much murkier. That\u2019s what we\u2019re looking at now.","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/whos-correct-stocks-or-bonds-or-copper-or-yen\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/chaos.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/chaos.jpg","width":1000,"height":563},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","name":"IBKR Campus US","description":"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization","name":"Interactive Brokers","alternateName":"IBKR","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","width":669,"height":669,"caption":"Interactive Brokers"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/about-ibkr-campus\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/cyber-security-notice\/"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549","name":"Steve Sosnick","description":"Steve is the Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/chaos.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=209620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209620\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116504"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=209620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=209620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=209620"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=209620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}