{"id":209403,"date":"2024-07-22T10:01:24","date_gmt":"2024-07-22T14:01:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=209403"},"modified":"2024-07-25T15:42:55","modified_gmt":"2024-07-25T19:42:55","slug":"chart-advisor-we-live-in-interesting-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-we-live-in-interesting-times\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: We Live in Interesting Times\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Jay Woods, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Your Weekly Roadmap<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We live in interesting times\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After a crazy week of headlines, continued political uncertainty and one of 2024\u2019s more volatile week\u2019s in this market, what can we expect next?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well that\u2019s the worst part and yet the best part of working on Wall St. – you never know what\u2019s going to come next. You just need to be ready to pivot and focus on the bigger picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s look at the bigger picture and what traders and investors will be watching over the coming week and what could shape market behavior in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Of course all eyes will be on the election. The headlines and uncertainty surrounding the potential outcome, let alone the final candidates, seem to change moment to moment. At the end of the day it is the Fed and fiscal policy that will drive the markets. The market doesn\u2019t care about your politics. I discussed this with Neil Cavuto on Fox Business here<\/a> last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) <\/strong>could be the final data point the Fed needs to make their first move in rates in over a year. This is what will drive fiscal policy and is the most important data point of the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As you know, because I reiterate it every month, the Fed prefers this inflationary measure more than the CPI because it covers a broader range of spending. Unlike the CPI and PPI numbers, we haven\u2019t had many upside surprises in the PCE as it continues to slowly trend lower<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A PCE number in line or better than the 2.5% expectation could be just what the Fed needs to finally give investors that anticipated first rate cut. While the trend slows, it continues to inch lower and closer to the Fed\u2019s target rate of 2%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed Quiet Period. <\/strong>We won\u2019t be hearing any more from the Fed this week as they enter the quiet period ahead of the July 31st meeting. Knowing that Jerome Powell has telegraphed every move in rates since his term began, do not expect a cut at the next meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, there has been a convenient leak to The Wall St. Journal during this period in the past. If PCE data comes in cooler then maybe, just maybe, the Fed will give the market its first rate cut in July.\\<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another Look at the Small Caps\u2026 <\/strong>Last week we focused on the breakout of small caps on a weekly basis going back to 2022. We were looking to get confirmation of the move with a follow through to the upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well we got it – sorta. The index closed up another 1.7%, but well off its weekly highs. The bears will argue the rally may have petered out, while the bulls like myself will argue this is a normal pullback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So what does this set-up mean going forward?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have an attainable\u00a0upside target of 244 in the IWM which would take it back to its all-time highs. A pullback to the 212 level and its old resistance level, should act as a good support level and a nice entry point from a risk\/reward standpoint. You can see me break down the technical set-up with CNBC\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings.\u00a0<\/strong>Over the next three weeks we get into the heart of earnings season. This week we get some of the old classics in\u00a0GM, Ford, Verizon, IBM\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0AT&T.<\/strong>\u00a0We also get two stocks in the \u201cMag 7\u201d when\u00a0Tesla\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0Alphabet\u00a0<\/strong>report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 22nd July 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After a crazy week of headlines, continued political uncertainty and one of 2024\u2019s more volatile week\u2019s in this market, what can we expect 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