{"id":208998,"date":"2024-07-09T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-09T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=208998"},"modified":"2024-07-15T14:54:07","modified_gmt":"2024-07-15T18:54:07","slug":"volatility-the-calm-before-the-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/volatility-the-calm-before-the-storm\/","title":{"rendered":"Volatility: The Calm Before the Storm?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Volatility, the tendency of prices to fluctuate, is not just an academic construct \u2013 there are also products such as ETFs based on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Volatility has recently been quite low by historical standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Can we now expect an increase in volatility? Let\u2019s take a look at its seasonal pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-volatility-over-the-course-of-the-year\">Volatility over the course of the year<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart below shows you the seasonal development of the CBOE volatility index, which is based on the S&amp;P 500, over the past 34 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The horizontal axis shows the time of year, the vertical axis the level of volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This allows you to see at a glance how volatility typically develops seasonally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-volatility-index-seasonal-trend-over-34-years\">Volatility index, seasonal trend over 34 years<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"683\" height=\"393\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/fig1.jpg\" alt=\"Volatility index, seasonal trend over 34 years\" class=\"wp-image-209002 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/fig1.jpg 683w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/fig1-300x173.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 683px) 100vw, 683px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 683px; aspect-ratio: 683\/393;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Volatility increases seasonally from mid-July.&nbsp;<\/strong>Source:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/\">Seasonax<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As you can see, there is a pronounced seasonality of volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The strongest seasonal increase occurs from mid-July to the beginning of October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-fluctuations-are-now-increasing-seasonally\">Fluctuations are now increasing seasonally!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past 34 years, volatility between July 15 and October 7 has increased almost 80% of the time<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, it has risen every time in the past 10 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That could happen again now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, most investors do not currently expect volatility to increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, pay attention to the seasonal statistics. These tend to indicate stronger price fluctuations and possibly a storm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A certain degree of caution on the stock market seems appropriate, and possibly also the purchase of volatility products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted July 9, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/volatility-the-calm-before-the-storm\/\">Volatility: The Calm Before the Storm?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Volatility, the tendency of prices to fluctuate, is not just an academic construct \u2013 there are also products such as ETFs based on it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":577,"featured_media":209002,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[4109,860],"contributors-categories":[13716],"class_list":{"0":"post-208998","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-stock-market","14":"tag-volatility","15":"contributors-categories-seasonax"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Volatility: The Calm Before the Storm? | 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