{"id":208661,"date":"2024-07-01T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=208661"},"modified":"2024-07-08T11:44:06","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T15:44:06","slug":"weekly-market-recap-july-1-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-july-1-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: July 1, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Railroads, plastic, cars, oil, landlines, internet. AI might be new, but innovations that spur secular investment cycles are not. Companies in these high growth industries have long leveraged their first mover advantage to develop seemingly impenetrable moats, allowing some to dominate the S&amp;P 500\u2019s top 10 podium for decades. But entropy is inevitable. This week\u2019s chart looks at how the S&amp;P 500 market share of each year\u2019s top 10 cohort evolves over the following 5 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The red line shows the cohort\u2019s initial share, and the grey lines maps their progress. On average, the top 10\u2019s share fell from 21% initially to 14% by year 5 and 10% by year 10. This downward trend held for every year from 1999 to 2015. Since 2016, however, not only have the cohorts gained share, but also the initial share of subsequent cohorts has been increasing. Currently, we\u2019re sitting at a 50-year high with 36% of the S&amp;P 500 concentrated in the 10 largest companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These predominantly megacap tech names have rapidly gained additional share as the market crowned them AI\u2019s biggest beneficiaries. While this could be true, paradigm shifts like the internet and AI make the future even more uncertain. Only one tech name from 2000\u2019s top 10 remains in the list today. Luckily, today\u2019s tech sector is trading at a P\/E of ~30x vs. a peak of ~70x in 2000. So, while investors can ease their bubble woes, a healthy dose of wariness about high concentration at elevated valuations is warranted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline PCE grew 0.1% m\/m (2.6% y\/y)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment increased to 68.2<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>New home sales fell 11.3% m\/m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>JOLTS<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FOMC minutes<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ISM PMIs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Employment report<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1016\" height=\"405\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Screenshot-2024-07-01-102044.png\" alt=\"five-year change in market share of the top 10 companies\" class=\"wp-image-208664 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Screenshot-2024-07-01-102044.png 1016w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Screenshot-2024-07-01-102044-700x279.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Screenshot-2024-07-01-102044-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Screenshot-2024-07-01-102044-768x306.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1016px) 100vw, 1016px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1016px; aspect-ratio: 1016\/405;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Bloomberg, FactSet, Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s, J.P.<br>Morgan Asset Management. Each year\u2019s top 10 was identified using<br>market capitalization on the last trading day of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thought of the week: Bloomberg, FactSet, Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s, J.P.<br>Morgan Asset Management.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted July 1, 2024 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., July 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of July 1, 2024 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week\u2019s chart looks at how the S&amp;P 500 market share of each year\u2019s top 10 cohort evolves over the following 5 years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":208664,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1685,3598,2298,2637],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-208661","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-macro","14":"tag-market-outlook","15":"tag-market-recap","16":"tag-market-share","17":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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