{"id":208564,"date":"2024-06-27T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=208564"},"modified":"2024-06-28T03:40:22","modified_gmt":"2024-06-28T07:40:22","slug":"nverse-nvidia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nverse-nvidia\/","title":{"rendered":"Nverse Nvidia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Something strange happened over the past three days.  Key indices, the S&P 500 (SPX<\/span>) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX<\/span>) traded higher or lower along with Nvidia\u2019s (NVDA<\/span>) moves those days.  Or, should I say, they followed NVDA higher or lower?  It\u2019s hard to say.  But on each of those days, key advance\/decline metrics moved in the opposite direction.  Who\u2019s driving this market?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Admit it, how many of you saw today\u2019s headline and thought that this piece would be about an inverse NVDA ETF, such as NVD (GraniteShares 2X Short NVDA ETF)?  That\u2019s understandable.  NVDA surpassed Tesla (TSLA<\/span>) not only as the most active stock and options class on the IBKR platform several months ago, while NVDL, the 2X leveraged NVDA ETF, is consistently also among the more active stocks at our firm.  More importantly, NVDA and some of its other AI-related peers such as Broadcom (AVGO<\/span>), AMD, and Micron (MU<\/span>) better capture the market\u2019s zeitgeist<\/a> than TSLA these days.  As interesting as Elon Musk remains, Jensen Huang is much more the man of the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market\u2019s reaction to MU\u2019s earnings report is giving many of us pause this morning.  As I write this, that stock is over -7% lower despite beating street estimates on the top and bottom line.  The problem is that the company didn\u2019t raise expectations sufficiently.  They dared only to match public expectations, not exceed them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a huge concern.  When you get a reaction like MU\u2019s, where the numbers should be good enough to avoid a selloff, let alone spur a rally, that\u2019s a bad sign – a tell that expectations are so high that they can’t be exceeded.  That said, NVDA has been able to do it consistently \u2013 making them a truly astounding company \u2013 but what happens if they do something similar to MU?  Would the act of merely acknowledging exceptional expectations rather than once again raising them lead to a significant downdraft?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a concern that we raised before each of the last two<\/a> earnings reports<\/a> from NVDA, and we are likely to raise it once again in late August.  Just because the risks have proved unfounded before doesn\u2019t mean that they have disappeared.  If recent storms have failed to do damage in your area (thankfully), it doesn\u2019t mean that the risk of future storms is now zero.  The risk remains.  And MU\u2019s behavior today is a reminder of that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is why I point out the odd market behavior that we\u2019ve seen this week.  On Monday, NVDA was lower, along with SPX and NDX.  But NYSE and Nasdaq Advances\/Declines were solidly positive (about 1.5:1).  Then, on Tuesday and Wednesday, the opposite occurred.  NVDA, SPX and NDX all rose, but both sets of Advance\/Declines were negative by roughly the same margin as they were positive on Monday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frankly, I\u2019m not sure what, if anything, this means.   We have discussed the various divergences<\/a> and weakening underpinnings<\/a> of the current market for some time.  This is clearly among them.  It could also be a feature of portfolio managers repositioning ahead of tomorrow\u2019s end of the quarter, as investors move from mega cap tech to value and vice versa.  Or it could simply be that NVDA is the Atlas holding up<\/a> the whole market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heck, I\u2019ve been saying for some time that \u201cIt\u2019s Nvidia\u2019s World, We\u2019re Just Living (and Investing) in It<\/a>\u201d, or that \u201cit\u2019s Nvidia\u2019s market and we\u2019re all just trading in it.<\/a>\u201d  That\u2019s very much been the case from the standpoint of major indices, but much less so when we look under the surface.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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