{"id":208336,"date":"2024-06-24T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-24T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=208336"},"modified":"2024-06-25T03:35:03","modified_gmt":"2024-06-25T07:35:03","slug":"unconstrained-fixed-income-views-june-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/unconstrained-fixed-income-views-june-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Unconstrained fixed income views: June 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By: Global Unconstrained Fixed Income<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems that \u2018patience is a virtue\u2019 when it comes to disinflation and a more accommodative rates environment.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past month, we have increased the probability of a \u2018soft landing\u2019 to its highest level within the year, due to significantly improved US inflation news. This has reduced the \u2018no-landing\u2019 risk. Because of generally positive economic news, we continue to perceive only a very small risk of a \u2018hard landing\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greater confidence of a soft landing\u2026.no landing risks abate (again)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Greater<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Schroders Global Unconstrained Fixed Income team, 17 June 2024. For illustrative purposes only. “Soft landing” refers to a scenario where economic growth slows and inflation pressures eases; \u201chard landing\u201d refers to a sharp fall in economic activity and additional rate cuts are deemed necessary; \u201cno landing\u201d refers to a scenario in which inflation remains sticky and interest rates may be required to be kept higher for longer.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Major central bank meetings have passed without fireworks. The European Central Bank (ECB) kicked off its easing cycle\u2013 a move which was well-flagged in advance. However, given the recent stubbornness in eurozone services inflation and the current growth rebound, we anticipate the ECB\u2019s next move to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has revised its rate forecasts, now indicating one rate cut for this year, down from two. Despite this, the committee\u2019s \u2018modal view\u2019 still suggests two cuts, as projected by eight of its members.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSlow and steady wins the race\u201d\u2026?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So, what led us to increase our \u2018soft landing\u2019 probability even further? To put it simply; signs of easing inflation pressures. While we consider a whole host of economic indicators, few are as important as developments on the US inflation front. After all, low inflation is the ultimate path to a \u2018soft landing\u2019 as it provides room for the Fed to loosen policy. May\u2019s US CPI report (CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services) showed promising signs, despite the stubborn shelter inflation. The cost of services, not including housing (the so called super-core measure) improved significantly over the month. In fact, compared to last month, the price of services has actually gone down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe experience of democracy is like the experience of life itself\u2014always changing\u2026”<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With 2024 being a record year for the number of citizens heading to the polls (over two billion), there was always scope for a degree of political instability. Nevertheless, little would have prepared investors for the number of surprises in such short succession across both developed and emerging markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

France\u2019s fiscal challenges have pushed the country\u2019s government bond valuations into decline, and the unexpected election announcement has exacerbated market stress. We don\u2019t think the sell-off in European assets creates a buying opportunity just yet – the outlook is just too opaque, and we cannot discount the probability of a noticeable change in the French political landscape ahead. Nevertheless, the indiscriminate nature of the sell-off should present opportunities at some point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity”<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Given the assignment of a high probability to a \u2018soft landing\u2019, we foresee challenges for global bond markets to rally structurally from their current position. In terms of asset allocation, we still favour covered bonds over other credit sectors like supranationals and agencies. However, unlike US agency mortgage backed securities, we have been reticent to increase our score on improved valuations alone due to ongoing political risk. For corporate credit, we continue to favour European over US investment grade, but remain cautious due to ongoing political risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted June 24, 2024 – Unconstrained fixed income views: June 2024<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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