![\"weekly](\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/1-4.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"CPI,](\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/2-4.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"Core](\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/3-4.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"Fed](\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/4-1.png\")
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Economic data with market-moving potential is hard to find for the June 24 week. The calendar is not lacking in reports as the second quarter comes to a close. It is simply that most of the pivotal reports from May are already published and the next wave of data on the labor market and inflation in June are a week or two away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There\u2019s already a good sense that the housing market continues to feel the pinch of mortgage rates hovering near the 7 percent mark back in May. The dip in the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the last two weeks won\u2019t be visible in most of the housing numbers for another month. Only the NAR pending home sales index for May on Thursday at 10:00 ET will offer much indication of movement in existing home sales. Contracts taken out in May will reflect rates mostly for April and early May when at least some homebuyers were acting while they had a lock on rates around 6.8 percent and at a time when rates were trending higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There isn\u2019t much in the way of labor market data during the week, but there is a major inflation report. The PCE deflator for May \u2013 part of the report on personal income and spending on Friday at 8:30 ET \u2013 could shape market expectations for the timing of a rate cut. Financial markets have not exactly ignored the hawkish tone of comments from Fed policymakers, but do seem to be convinced that the resumption of a mild disinflationary trend will mean that the FOMC will change its tune and cut rates a bit sooner than the current rhetoric would suggest. Policymakers are data-dependent and looking for more than one or two months of minor dips in the inflation measures before shifting the stance of monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Perhaps markets will listen when Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his semiannual monetary policy testimony before Congress. At this writing, the date of the testimony hasn\u2019t been announced yet. With the Independence Day holiday in the July 1 week and Congressional recession the following week, it isn\u2019t likely to take place before mid-July. If so, it will only precede the July 30-31 FOMC meeting by a short period. It would be highly unusual for the testimony to take place within the communications blackout period (midnight Saturday, July 20 through midnight Thursday, August 1) around the meeting. That leaves a narrow window in the July 15 week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n