{"id":208129,"date":"2024-06-17T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-17T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=208129"},"modified":"2024-07-01T10:22:25","modified_gmt":"2024-07-01T14:22:25","slug":"weekly-market-recap-june-17-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-june-17-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: June 17, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on short-term Treasuries exceed those offered by long-term Treasuries. Historically, an inversion between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries has been viewed as a warning sign of an economic downturn, although this time, for now, appears to be different. In fact, June marks the 23rd consecutive month of yield curve inversion without a recession, the longest streak on record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While some investors may feel like the inverted yield curve is here to stay, it is important to remember that this is not normal. Traditionally, the yield curve slopes upwards, as investors allocating to longer duration, higher volatility bonds demand additional compensation for the increased risk. As shown in this week\u2019s chart, this was the norm in the years before and after the Great Financial Crisis, albeit at different levels of yields. This serves as a reminder that as policy and economic conditions normalize over time, the yield curve will eventually return to its usual upward sloping shape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At last week\u2019s FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve reduced the number of expected rate cuts in 2024 from three to just one. While it remained biased toward easing policy, the yield curve will likely stay inverted until it delivers meaningful cuts. Against this backdrop, investors may want to take a barbell approach to their fixed income portfolios. This means taking advantage of yields at the front end of the curve to access attractive income while also maintaining some duration exposure to protect against any unforeseen economic shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline CPI rose 0.0% m\/m and 3.3% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPI fell 0.2% m\/m and rose 2.2% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Initial jobless claims rose to 242K, up from 229K<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Building permits<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markit PMIs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1026\" height=\"403\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-17-103111.png\" alt=\"US Treasury yield curve\" class=\"wp-image-208130 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-17-103111.png 1026w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-17-103111-700x275.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-17-103111-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-17-103111-768x302.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1026px) 100vw, 1026px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1026px; aspect-ratio: 1026\/403;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan<br>Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thought of the week: Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan<br>Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted June 17, 2024 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., June 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of June 17, 2024 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At last week\u2019s FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve reduced the number of expected rate cuts in 2024 from three to just one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":208130,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[217,1685,3598,2298,3670],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-208129","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-cpi","14":"tag-macro","15":"tag-market-outlook","16":"tag-market-recap","17":"tag-treasury-yield","18":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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