{"id":207987,"date":"2024-06-12T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=207987"},"modified":"2024-06-13T04:59:31","modified_gmt":"2024-06-13T08:59:31","slug":"what-can-the-fomc-do-for-an-encore","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-can-the-fomc-do-for-an-encore\/","title":{"rendered":"What Can the FOMC Do for an Encore?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We came into today with the mindset that the big news of the day would be the FOMC meeting and Chair Powell\u2019s press conference.  CPI was certainly on the agenda, but it seemed to be a secondary consideration.  Did the CPI report steal Powell\u2019s thunder?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This morning\u2019s CPI report was an unmitigated stunner, beating on every measure.  The monthly headline and core results were 0.0% and +0.2%, both coming in 0.1% less than consensus expectations.  That was obviously great news for both stock and bond investors. By late morning, we see Treasury yields lower by 14-16 basis points, while the S&P 500 (SPX) is up over 1%.  The Russell 2000 (RTY) is up just less than 3%, and NYSE advancers lead decliners by about 5:1.  This is a powerful, across-the-board rally predicated upon solid economic news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now what?  It was clear that markets expected no chance of a rate change at today\u2019s FOMC meeting, but expectations for a September cut rose from 58% yesterday to 81% now.  Two full cuts are now priced in for 2024, up from 1.5 yesterday.  It is quite fair to believe that progress toward the Fed\u2019s inflation target would raise the likelihood for cuts, even if we discover later that the Summary of Economic Projections (aka SEP or \u201cdot plot\u201d) was likely to show that two cuts were already expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We now have to wonder if the markets\u2019 joyful reaction to the CPI report will necessitate a change in tone from Chair Powell.  Traders have come to expect a Goldilocks mien from him, if not an outright dovish tone.  Even when he tries to be balanced in his approach, traders seize upon the market friendly portion of his narrative.  Today he can\u2019t help but notice the euphoric reaction to CPI; will he want to take a more measured, if not dour, tone to avoid throwing gasoline onto the fire?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Either way, we\u2019ve already seen a relatively typical post-FOMC move occur already.  As the table below shows, it is normal to see a 1.35% change for SPX on Fed day.  I simply don\u2019t have enough data to predict what might occur when we\u2019ve already had a move of that magnitude before the announcement:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Options markets seem to believe that the enthusiasm will continue after the press conference.  Note how the peak probabilities for SPX options expiring both today and Friday are above the current index level:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring June 12, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring June 14, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, at-money SPX options are still pricing in a roughly 2% move for today, with about a 1% average daily move expected for the remainder of the week.  Implied volatilities for options expiring in the next couple of weeks have dipped, though:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPX Term Structure of Volatility, Today (yellow), Yesterday (orange)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And though you wouldn\u2019t necessarily expect this, SPX skews for near-term options do show some downside risk aversion:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for SPX Options Expiring June 12th<\/sup> (blue), June 14th<\/sup> (magenta), June 21st<\/sup> (orange)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bottom line is that we can guess all we want now.  We\u2019ll know soon enough what to expect.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We came into today with the mindset that the big news of the day would be the FOMC meeting and Chair Powell\u2019s press conference. CPI was certainly on the agenda, but it seemed to be a secondary consideration. 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