{"id":207951,"date":"2024-06-12T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=207951"},"modified":"2024-06-13T04:24:31","modified_gmt":"2024-06-13T08:24:31","slug":"the-prices-dont-feel-right-unraveling-the-inflation-perception","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-prices-dont-feel-right-unraveling-the-inflation-perception\/","title":{"rendered":"The Prices Don\u2019t Feel Right: Unraveling the Inflation Perception"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Consumers are experiencing the impact of rising inflation, particularly in the grocery sector, leading to a shift in consumer sentiment and the need to reassess budgets.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Major retailers like Target and Walgreens are addressing consumer concerns by announcing price cuts, aiming to break the perception that prices only go up.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The perception of lower prices has a powerful effect on consumer sentiment, but for now, many consumers still feel that prices are not right.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation is not fun. And\u2014for the past 30 years\u2014it has largely been a non-issue for consumers. That dynamic has changed. The relevant question is whether this is something persistent and meaningful or simply a fleeting feeling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"461\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/figure-1-1.jpg\" alt=\"News heard about price changes\" class=\"wp-image-207954 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/figure-1-1.jpg 680w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/figure-1-1-300x203.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 680px; aspect-ratio: 680\/461;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is where some extrapolation is worthwhile. There should be little doubt the price hikes of 2022\u20132023 were problematic for consumers. They noticed. Volumes for the major grocery store aisle companies fell, and over the past few quarters many announced plans to regain their lost volumes. Now, there is a different narrative. First, it was Target announcing price cuts. Then it was Walgreens. These will not be the last.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And these announcements matter. Sure, they are likely to drive some incremental foot traffic. But, more importantly, the announcements are critical to breaking the mentality that \u201cprices only go up.\u201d If you are the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), that is welcome news. Maybe\u2014finally\u2014the inflation cycle is breaking in the parts that can be controlled. The FOMC is not going to break the inflation coming through the insurance channel. That is regulated and sticky, beyond the reach of interest rates. The FOMC breaking inflation at the grocery store is a victory it can relish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"708\" height=\"583\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/figure-2.jpg\" alt=\"Household food expenditures as a share of disposable personal income\" class=\"wp-image-207953 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/figure-2.jpg 708w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/figure-2-700x576.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/figure-2-300x247.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 708px) 100vw, 708px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 708px; aspect-ratio: 708\/583;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumers do not like having to redo their budgets. An underappreciated tailwind for the U.S. consumer for the past 70 years was the declining cost of food relative to discretionary income. Less budget spent on necessities meant more budget spent on other things. And that meant a boom for truly discretionary spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"716\" height=\"468\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/figure-3.jpg\" alt=\"Current financial situation compared with a year ago\" class=\"wp-image-207952 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/figure-3.jpg 716w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/figure-3-700x458.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/figure-3-300x196.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 716px) 100vw, 716px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 716px; aspect-ratio: 716\/468;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is not the current situation. Like nearly every economic theory and dataset, Covid and the resulting oddities challenged or broke many of the traditional empirical relationships. The invasion of Ukraine did not help matters. Consumer sentiment data was not spared in the resulting model fractures. How can the U.S. consumer feel so bad when wages are moving higher, jobs are plentiful and the economy is growing? It is the first time in a couple generations that buying groceries is consuming a more significant share of disposable income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That does not feel great.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is an odd justification to the \u201ceconomy is good\u201d and the \u201ceconomy is not good\u201d argument. And it hinges on the \u201cfeels\u201d of the consumer. One of the most noticeable things for the consumer? The grocery bill. The recent announcements by a few major retailers should not be ignored as a catalyst for consumer sentiment. The perception of lower prices is a powerful thing. But, for the time being, the prices don\u2019t feel right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted June 10, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wisdomtree.com\/investments\/blog\/2024\/06\/10\/the-prices-dont-feel-right-unraveling-the-inflation-perception\">The Prices Don\u2019t Feel Right: Unraveling the Inflation Perception<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the past 30 years, inflation has been a non-issue for consumers, but the dynamic has changed. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1408,"featured_media":207953,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[570,1685,62],"contributors-categories":[13638],"class_list":["post-207951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-inflation","tag-macro","tag-rates","contributors-categories-wisdomtree-u-s"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Prices Don\u2019t Feel Right: Unraveling the Inflation 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