{"id":207937,"date":"2024-06-12T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=207937"},"modified":"2024-06-13T04:56:59","modified_gmt":"2024-06-13T08:56:59","slug":"doughnut-cpi-blesses-investors-prior-to-powell","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/doughnut-cpi-blesses-investors-prior-to-powell\/","title":{"rendered":"Doughnut CPI Blesses Investors Prior to Powell: Jun. 12, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This morning\u2019s CPI report was terrific, with May inflation sporting a doughnut (a huge zero). Investors are responding by sending stocks to the moon and yields to the tombs as market players dial up the odds of a dovish Fed Chair Powell this afternoon. Increasingly significant, on the other hand, is whether this morning\u2019s print could possibly propel the committee\u2019s own expectations for 2024 cuts up a notch. Policymakers\u2019 rate outlooks are due half an hour prior to Chair Powell taking the mound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-inflation-eases\"><strong>Inflation Eases<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May was flat month over month (m\/m) compared to the 0.3% increase in April and analysts\u2019 expectations for a 0.1% gain. On an annual basis, prices climbed 3.3%, slightly below analysts\u2019 expectations for a 3.4% increase, which was also the year-over-year (y\/y) rate recorded in April. The Core CPI, which excludes energy and food due to the items\u2019 volatile characteristics, rose 0.2%, the lowest rate in 10 months, while analysts expected the measurement to match last month\u2019s 0.3% result. On a y\/y basis, core prices climbed 3.4%, down 20 basis points (bps) from April and below the analyst expectation of 3.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/CPI-6-12-24.png\" alt=\"Consumer Price Index\" class=\"wp-image-207984 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/CPI-6-12-24.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/CPI-6-12-24-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/CPI-6-12-24-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/CPI-6-12-24-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>On a m\/m basis, the following categories became more expensive by the stated percentages:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Medical care commodities, 1.3%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Used cars and trucks, 0.6%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Food away from home, 0.4%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Medical care services, 0.3%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Prices for the food at home category were flat while the following categories demonstrated the noted price declines:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Energy commodities, 3.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Transportation services, 0.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>New vehicles, 0.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Apparel, 0.3%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Energy services, 0.2%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-uk-economy-falters\"><strong>UK Economy Falters<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK was flat in April after climbing 0.4% in the preceding month, according to estimates from the National Office of Statistics. April\u2019s result met analysts\u2019 expectations and was supported by services output increasing 0.2% in April 2024, its fourth consecutive month of expansion. The growth was offset by production output and construction declining 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively. In March, production output expanded 0.2%. Construction has now declined for three consecutive months. For the first quarter of this year, real GDP is estimated to have grown 0.7% relative to the final three months of 2023. Growth was supported by both services and production output.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-markets-rally-on-fed-rate-cut-optimism\"><strong>Markets Rally on Fed Rate Cut Optimism<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are ripping on the back of this morning\u2019s doughnut CPI, with financial conditions loosening, as a result of narrower credit spreads, lighter bond yields, a weaker dollar and robust stock gains. Indeed, all major US equity indices are pointing north, with the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 leading the charge; it\u2019s up 2.9%. The Nasdaq Composite, S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial benchmarks are loftier by 1.8%, 1.1% and 0.4%. Sectoral breadth is pointing to some exhaustion, however, with just 6 out of 11 sectors green on the session. The upside is being led by technology, real estate and consumer discretionary, which are increasing 2.5%, 2.1% and 1.5%. Offsetting some of the positivity are energy, consumer staples, and utilities, which are travelling south by 1%, 0.5% and 0.5%. Treasuries are catching strong bids as the 2- and 10-year maturities change hands at 4.69% and 4.27%, 18 and 19 bps lesser on the session. Reduced borrowing costs and expectations of an increasingly accommodative Fed are weighing on the greenback, with its index down 101 bps as the US Dollar loses ground relative to most of its major counterparts, including the euro, pound sterling, franc, yen, and Aussie and Canadian dollar. It is gaining relative to the yuan, however. The weaker dollar and optimism for potential Fed cuts are pushing most commodities higher, with silver, copper and gold gaining 2.4%, 1.4% and 0.5%. On the other hand, however, crude oil is down 0.2%, or $0.19, to $77.93 per barrel on heavier stateside inventories. Lumber is also down 0.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-one-month-is-not-a-trend\"><strong>One Month is Not a Trend<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors are cheering today\u2019s data with hopes that it may prompt the Fed to turn accommodative, but as I explained during a <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/may-cpi-report-shows-path-134135937.html\">Yahoo Finance<\/a> interview this morning, I believe numerous months of benign inflation figures are required before policymakers embark on easing policy. Today\u2019s CPI numbers, furthermore, benefited from energy commodities dropping 3.5%, but a significant risk was buried in the figures\u2014persistent increases in shelter costs. The Fed has been patiently waiting for housing expenses to decline based on the expectation that new apartment dwellers will pay lower leases due to landlords offering incentives. That is unlikely because of the current housing shortage against the backdrop of multifamily builders slowing their plans, which points to the risk that shelter may continue to push price pressures above the Fed\u2019s 2% target and further delay the central bank\u2019s pivot. With those points in mind, I believe the dot plot to be released today may show only one reduction for the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Visit\u202f<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-academy\/economics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Traders\u2019 Academy<\/a>\u202fto Learn More About the Consumer Price Index and Other Economic Indicators<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning\u2019s CPI report was terrific, with May inflation sporting a doughnut (a huge zero).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":207977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[217,77,570,11672],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-207937","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-cpi","15":"tag-fed","16":"tag-inflation","17":"tag-macro-outlook","18":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Doughnut CPI Blesses Investors Prior to Powell: Jun. 12, 2024","description":"This morning\u2019s CPI report was terrific, with May inflation sporting a doughnut (a huge 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