{"id":207855,"date":"2024-06-10T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-10T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=207855"},"modified":"2024-07-02T13:31:45","modified_gmt":"2024-07-02T17:31:45","slug":"its-about-owning-the-correct-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-about-owning-the-correct-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s About Owning the Correct Stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Friday morning\u2019s Payrolls report freaked out the bond market.&nbsp; But by the end of that day and so far today, stocks don\u2019t seem to care.&nbsp; When we look deeper into the underlying trends in the equity market, we see that today\u2019s performance is less about the bulk of stocks performing well than the correct stocks doing so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering recent market activity, this is hardly a stretch.&nbsp; I was asked for a comment shortly after the numbers were released, and here was my take:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"612\" height=\"226\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture1-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-207857 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture1-4.png 612w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture1-4-300x111.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 612px; aspect-ratio: 612\/226;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From a broad index perspective, that has proven correct.&nbsp; But when we look more closely, we see that most stocks are lower.&nbsp; On Friday, NYSE and Nasdaq Composite decliners outpaced advancers by about 3:1.&nbsp; So far today, as major indices bounced from modest sell-offs, the numbers still decliners outpacing advancers, though by a narrow margin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We all know that the mega-cap technology stocks that dominate the weighting of both SPX and NDX have led this year\u2019s advance.&nbsp;&nbsp; In January we posited that \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-nvda-and-everything-else\/?query=it%27s%20nvda%20market&amp;query_id=39bb2aa20f6fb59faffb836419d3b64f&amp;index=prod_ibkrcampus_en&amp;user_token=anonymous-ab2cddb6-49e7-4567-a8d5-7379570809cb\">It\u2019s NVDA and Everything Else<\/a>\u201d, and even while discussing the GameStop (GME) madness, I posited that \u201cit\u2019s NVDA\u2019s market, and we\u2019re all trading in it\u201d (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2024\/06\/07\/meme-stock-craze-feels-more-cynical-now-because-of-no-obvious-enemy-interactive-brokers-sosnick.html?&amp;qsearchterm=sosnick\">see 2:36 in link<\/a>).&nbsp; When we take a look at SPX, which is market cap weighted, versus SPW, the equal-weighted version, we can see how much of a role that market cap is playing in the advance:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Year-to-date Normalized Chart, SPW (blue\/white candles), SPX (magenta line)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"477\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture2-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-207858 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture2-2.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture2-2-700x357.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture2-2-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture2-2-768x391.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/477;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even as we managed to skirt the potential pitfall of Friday\u2019s jobs report, the question to consider as we move into a <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/much-to-consider-but-few-concerns\/\">consequential week<\/a> that features NVDA going ex-split, the Apple (AAPL) Worldwide Developers Conference, a CPI report, and an FOMC meeting, is what happens if any of the key stocks slip up. &nbsp;A rush to the exits from any, let alone all of the key market drivers, could have profound consequences.&nbsp;&nbsp; The bulls need to hope that NVDA\u2019s split is not a \u201csell the news\u201d event (it hasn\u2019t been, at least so far, thanks partly to at least three analysts raising their price targets), that AAPL has good things to offer, and that Fed Chair Powell is his usual Goldilocks self.&nbsp; If so, the party can continue \u2013 at least for those behind the velvet rope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Size matters for getting into the club.&nbsp; Note the outperformance of SPX relative to the S&amp;P Midcap (MID) and Smallcap (SML) indices:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Year-to-date Normalized Chart, SPX (white), MID (blue), SML (red)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"480\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture3-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-207859 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture3-2.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture3-2-700x359.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture3-2-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture3-2-768x394.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/480;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As stark as that differential is, especially over the past month, another addition to the chart makes it boldly apparent from where the performance really stems.&nbsp; The following chart adds in MAGS, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF as a proxy for the high-flying mega cap tech stocks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Year-to-date Normalized Chart, SPX (white), MID (blue), SML (red), MAGS (purple)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"477\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture4-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-207860 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture4-1.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture4-1-700x357.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture4-1-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Picture4-1-768x391.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/477;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Can this type of narrow market leadership persist?&nbsp; We\u2019d better hope so, because if the mega caps in general, and NVDA in particular, falter, then it will take an enormous rotation to keep the broad indices afloat.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Friday morning\u2019s Payrolls report freaked out the bond market.\u00a0 But by the end of that day and so far today, stocks don\u2019t seem to care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":199595,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[3598,4109],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-207855","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-market-outlook","15":"tag-stock-market","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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