{"id":207526,"date":"2024-06-03T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-03T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=207526"},"modified":"2024-06-05T12:25:37","modified_gmt":"2024-06-05T16:25:37","slug":"how-to-kill-a-zombie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/how-to-kill-a-zombie\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Kill a Zombie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Over the weekend I prepared to write today\u2019s column about the spectacular end-of-month, mark-the-close rally that launched the S&P 500 Index (SPX<\/span>) nearly 1% higher in the last 15 minutes of Friday\u2019s trading after an otherwise down day.  Instead, the zombie-like re-re-resurgence of GameStop (GME<\/span>) mania consumes my attention yet again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the spirit of the more rational AI-mania (?), I asked ChatGPT the following: \u201cHow does someone kill a zombie?\u201d  Apparently, it is against their policies to ask about murder, even if it strictly regards a fictional character, but the first item on the 4-point list that it nonetheless returned was this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ll resist the obvious temptation to snark about the brain of anyone who paid up 80-100% for GME during this morning\u2019s pre-market session.  The meme stocks have never been about rationality and valuation, and that run-up was simply the latest demonstration. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To put things into perspective, it is hardly unusual to see stocks run up when key investors take sizeable positions.  This is the modus operandi of activist investors.  They purchase the stock quietly, then go public with their holdings, generally with a list of demands for management.  A recent example of this was Trian Partners\u2019 purchase of Disney (DIS) shares<\/a>.  The stock benefitted from the involvement of the activist investor, which netted Trian a sizeable profit even though the costly battle failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, even though the techniques of \u201cRoaring Kitty\u201d[i]<\/a> and a long-time activist investor use the same playbook, DIS and GME are two very different companies.  While we can quibble about DIS\u2019 valuation \u2013 whether it justifies its 29 P\/E on a trailing basis, whether its forward P\/E of 22 reflects unrealistic growth expectations amid cord cutting and a nervous consumer, etc. \u2013 the fact remains that this company is consistently profitable and cash-flow positive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, GME just eked out its first profit since 2019 \u2013 a robust 5 cents per share \u2013 and burned nearly $1 billion in cash during the unprofitable years.  Though to be quite fair, GME\u2019s recent $933 million stock sale<\/a> did much to replenish the company\u2019s coffers.  The balance sheet is clearly in better shape than it was last month, though it did little if anything to hel p its income statement on an ongoing basis.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In both cases, the revelations about the stock holdings were clearly opportunistic.  And in both cases, investors need to consider who benefits most from a situation like this.  I\u2019ll assert that in the case of a company like DIS, there is more of an opportunity for a win-win.  Experienced activists do their homework about the company and its prospects with the ultimate goal of turning what they perceive to be an undervalued stock into something more fully valued.  While there is little doubt that \u201cRoaring Kitty\u201d has demonstrated a more than ample understanding of GME, it is a stretch \u2013 at best \u2013 to assert that it is an undervalued situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is why I cautioned investors about the following this morning<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Is whoever controlling this account doing this in your best interest or in their best interest? And, really, you should think that one through because, to me, it [is] pretty obvious whose interest it’s in…\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“If you’re chasing the stock up here, you’re more likely than not the source of liquidity for whoever is controlling this account to sell into your enthusiasm.”  [<\/em>Full video here<\/em><\/a>]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One factor to consider is the huge options position that appears to be controlled by this account.  It would have been relatively easy for someone to accumulate a sizeable position in GME stock without attracting notice.  Its average daily volume over the past three weeks was over 75 million shares.  But the open interest in the 20 strike calls expiring June 21st<\/sup> was just over 145,000 as of Friday.  That means that the account owned over 80% of them.  One would normally look to the implied volatility of those options to look for anomalies, but that is tricky here because the whole situation is anomalous. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key data point to watch tomorrow is the open interest in that line.  It would be logical to expect that \u201cRoaring Kitty\u201d will have taken at least some profit today.  With volume over 100 million just after midday, selling stock would have been easy.  But only about 6,000 options have traded on that line today.  It is of course possible that beyond selling its long shares, the account could have sold shares against its options holdings \u2013 short, mind you \u2013 rather than selling the options to monetize its gains ahead of exercising them.  Or maybe they simply monetized the gamma and sold short against the long calls.  We\u2019ll know that tomorrow.  And that might rekindle another day of questions about the continually resurgent GME situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] I use quotation marks around \u201cRoaring Kitty\u201d because there are ongoing questions about whether the account remains linked to Keith Gill.  From the New York Times: Online sleuths have been debating the revival of the accounts since last month, with some speculating that Mr. Gill had sold his X account<\/a> to a conceptual artist with a history of trolling. While Mr. Gill\u2019s X and Reddit accounts have shown signs of life, his YouTube channel<\/a> \u2014 where he regularly posted videos of himself talking up his stock recommendations \u2014 remains inactive.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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