{"id":207507,"date":"2024-06-03T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-03T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=207507"},"modified":"2024-06-04T11:25:54","modified_gmt":"2024-06-04T15:25:54","slug":"weekly-market-recap-june-3-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-june-3-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: June 3, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brent crude oil prices closed at $82 per barrel on Friday, and while they have backed off from their springtime peak, they still look high relative to where they were five years ago, before the pandemic. However, it\u2019s important to recognize that almost all prices and wage rates are significantly higher today compared to five years ago. Between May 2019 and last Friday, Brent crude prices rose by 23%, but we estimate that U.S. headline CPI has risen by the same amount. Therefore, in a very real sense, $82 per barrel is the new $63 per barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This week\u2019s chart illustrates this by showing that real oil prices, excluding the shocks of the pandemic and Russia\/Ukraine War, have remained relatively stable. In May 2019, a barrel of Brent crude cost $67 and, measured in constant May 2019 dollars, a barrel of oil today would cost $72 per barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Going forward, oil prices will still be vulnerable to supply and demand shocks. The conflict in the Middle East could continue to threaten supply, but so far, it has not materially impacted oil prices. Additionally, OPEC decided to extend its voluntary supply cuts over the weekend, increasing uncertainty about future supply. On the other hand, demand pressures should be relatively steady. The Energy Information Administration expects global oil consumption to rise by only 0.8% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, reflecting, in part, sluggish Chinese demand growth, and global oil production should be able to handle demand growth of this magnitude. While the oil market remains volatile, oil in the $80s better reflects the impact of past inflation rather than portending an inflation surge ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Consumer confidence rose to 102 in May<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PCE rose 0.3% m\/m (2.7% y\/y) in Apr.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>JOLTS<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ISM services PMI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Employment report<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1021\" height=\"406\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-03-103403.png\" alt=\"Higher oil prices may be the &quot;new normal&quot;\" class=\"wp-image-207508 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-03-103403.png 1021w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-03-103403-700x278.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-03-103403-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-03-103403-768x305.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1021px) 100vw, 1021px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1021px; aspect-ratio: 1021\/406;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chart of the Week: Source: BLS, CRB &#8211; Commodity Research Bureau,<br>J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Real Brent crude oil prices were<br>calculated by deflating monthly Brent crude prices by the headline<br>Consumer Price Index reported by the BLS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thought of the week: Source: BLS, CRB &#8211; Commodity Research<br>Bureau, Energy Information Administration, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted June 3, 2024 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., June 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of June 3, 2024 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week\u2019s chart illustrates this by showing that real oil prices, excluding the shocks of the pandemic and Russia\/Ukraine War, have remained relatively stable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[570,2094,1685,528],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-207507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-inflation","tag-jolts","tag-macro","tag-pmi","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: June 3, 2024 | Traders&#039; 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