{"id":207471,"date":"2024-05-31T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-31T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=207471"},"modified":"2024-06-05T12:25:45","modified_gmt":"2024-06-05T16:25:45","slug":"another-day-another-head-fake","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/another-day-another-head-fake\/","title":{"rendered":"Another Day, Another Head Fake"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today\u2019s activity is not as egregious as last Thursday\u2019s, but it is cut from the same cloth.&nbsp; Last week, we saw a solid pre-opening rally on the back of Nvidia (NVDA) earnings that peaked immediately after the bell rang, only to close over -1% lower.&nbsp; This morning, thanks to a PCE Core Deflator reading that met expectations, we see something similar.&nbsp; Is this becoming a habit?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be sure, two days in just over a week hardly constitutes a trend.&nbsp; But when we consider that US equity markets also had late swoons during the prior two sessions, we must consider whether pre-market traders are expressing an exuberance that is simply not being matched by investors.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s consider the rationale for today\u2019s head fake. Quite frankly, there was nothing special about today\u2019s economic reports.&nbsp; On a monthly basis, both the PCE Deflator and the PCE Core Deflator were both exactly in-line at 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.&nbsp; Because there were no revisions, the yearly numbers also matched consensus.&nbsp; It would be quite understandable if traders were nervous ahead of the release of the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation measure and that a relief rally ensued, but as we have seen all too often, mild relief had a way of morphing into major enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of that enthusiasm stemmed from the bond market.&nbsp; Besides the benign inflation report, real personal spending came up short, falling -0.1% in April when +0.2% was expected.&nbsp; Bond traders took some solace from the weaker consumer, and we saw rates fall 3-4 basis points across the curve.&nbsp; Lower yields, higher stocks, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet herein lies a problem that <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/stocks-stop-ignoring-bonds-at-least-for-now\/\">we wrote about on Wednesday<\/a>.&nbsp; During this month stocks decoupled from bonds.&nbsp; We noted that stocks have been rallying this year even as bond yields rose, but that was because both were benefiting from improved economic expectations.&nbsp; A stronger economy led to solid earnings while at the same time forced traders to reduce their expectations for rate cuts from 6-7 to 1-2.&nbsp; Thus, yields rose, but for salutary reasons.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet once the market settled upon 1-2 cuts stocks rose until mid-May.&nbsp; Then, rates began to rise again but stocks moved sideways, testing all-time highs.&nbsp; The modest sell-off that we have seen in equities is simply stocks playing catch up to bonds after ignoring them for a couple of weeks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-months-10-year-treasury-futures-red-green-candles-spx-blue\"><em>3-Months, 10-Year Treasury Futures (red\/green candles), SPX (blue)<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"640\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-25-1100x640.png\" alt=\"3-Months, 10-Year Treasury Futures (red\/green candles), SPX (blue)\" class=\"wp-image-207472 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-25-1100x640.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-25-700x407.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-25-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-25-768x447.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-25.png 1430w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/640;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So far we may not be looking at anything much more meaningful than some understandable profit-taking after a very solid month.&nbsp; Or this may be some belated \u201csell in May\u201d activity that could lead to a more substantial pullback.&nbsp; Remember, we noted that <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/we-dont-know-if-sell-in-may-works-until-june-at-the-earliest\/\">we don\u2019t know if \u201csell in May\u201d works until at least June<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp; Looking ahead, we have the monthly jobs report next week, the NVDA ex-split date on June 11<sup>th<\/sup>, and an FOMC meeting on June 12<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; We should get a better June reading after that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today\u2019s activity is not as egregious as last Thursday\u2019s reversal, but it is cut from the same cloth.\u00a0 This morning, thanks to a PCE Core Deflator reading that met expectations, we see something similar.\u00a0 Is this becoming a habit?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":189144,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1685,17191],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-207471","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-macro","15":"tag-pce-core-deflator","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/volatility-market-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/207471","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=207471"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/207471\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/189144"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=207471"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=207471"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=207471"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=207471"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}