{"id":207299,"date":"2024-05-29T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=207299"},"modified":"2024-05-31T04:17:19","modified_gmt":"2024-05-31T08:17:19","slug":"managing-the-risk-off-tone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/managing-the-risk-off-tone\/","title":{"rendered":"Managing the Risk-Off Tone"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

E-mini S&P (June) \/ E-mini NQ (June)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

S&P, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 5324.75, up 3.25<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NQ, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 18,940.50, 64.50<\/p>\n\n\n\n

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are on their backfoot ahead of the opening bell. As I mentioned in my evening video last night, breadth is at the front of my mind as it has been deteriorating significantly. Without NVDA these two major indices would have already eroded much more. Look no further than the E-mini Dow, which has no true NVDA exposure, trading more than 3.5% from its local high last Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yields are another concern, as the U.S. 10-year is now above 4.5%, the highest since the Friday May 3rd<\/sup> Nonfarm Payroll report. Also, according to the CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool, the odds of more than one rate cut this year have dropped to 35.9% from 49.5% one week ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we are cautious, and I popped on the CNBC Halftime Report to update viewers with a hedge position on Friday, the trend is undoubtedly still bullish. Therefore, we will continue to hold a slight Bullish Bias as detailed below. However, we are watching yesterday\u2019s intraday low in the E-mini S&P of 5296.75 very closely, and continued action below here will likely encourage added selling. If this is the case, a break below last week\u2019s low and, furthermore, major three-star support at 5260-5264 will Neutralize this Bias in the near-term. Additionally, last Thursday\u2019s settlement in the E-mini NQ, the big reversal day post-NVDA earnings, was 18,696.25 and aligns with the previous record high on March 8th<\/sup> and March 21st<\/sup> as major three-star support. We view a violation and close below here, as well as rare major four-star support at 18,620-18,635, as a negative and clear break of the bullish trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bias: Neutral\/Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 5304.50-5309.75***, 5316-5317.25**, 5324.75-5326***, 5329.25-5331.25***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pivot: 5296.75<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support: 5285.25-5289.75***, 5273.50-5275**, 5260-5264***, 5241.50**, 5213.50-5216.75***, 5202.25-5204.25***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NQ (June)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 18,919-18,946***, 18,977-18,982***, 19,023*, 19,085***, 19,319***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pivot: 18,819-18,839<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support: 18,775-18,787*, 18,732-18,750**, 18,684-18,709***, 18,620-18,635****, 18,545-18,547**, 18,415-18,485***, 18,336.25-18,348**, 18,266,25-18,293***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crude Oil (July)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday\u2019s close: Settled 79.83, up 2.11<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WTI Crude Oil futures cleared the psychological $80 mark, but can it settle above? A major catalyst to start the week was strong travel demand data from the U.S. over the Memorial Day weekend and from China of late. We also believe geopolitical tailwinds are more relevant than headlines may give credit at the moment. Ultimately, weakness last week came on the heels of the White House announcing a release of Gasoline reserves ahead of the weekend and this was quickly shaken off and further helped create a technical bottom at a critical area of support we have been highlighting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, price action is not in the clear, and we find it a good time to monetize some of this move at least if you\u2019ve been able to capitalize as it is testing major three-star resistance at 81.15-81.28, aligning a gap with the 50% retracement back to the April 12th<\/sup> high. Additionally, the 50-day moving average comes in at 80.84.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bias: Bullish\/Neutral<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 81.15-81.28***, 82.03-82.34***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pivot: 79.97-80.11***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support: 79.46-79.61**, 79.01-79.05*, 78.66-78.78***, 77.72-78.05***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold (June) \/ Silver (July)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gold, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 2356.5, up 22.0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Silver, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 32.137, up 1.638<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold and Silver futures had a phenomenal start to the week but that momentum is stalling amid softness in the risk environment, U.S. Dollar strength, and a surge in yields. As I spoke in my evening video, I wanted Silver to get above $33 last night and set a new swing high; implying otherwise would be concerning. Here we are now, and what matters as today unfolds is the aforementioned outside market narratives and a constructive repose to support. Silver traveled the furthest to start the week and is clearly the local leader; it must hold out above the shelf created amid yesterday\u2019s early whipsaw, now our first wave of major three-star support at 31.59-31.67.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bias: Bullish\/Neutral<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 2349-2350.5**, 2356.5***, 2363.7-2365.8**, 2372.2-2375***, 2385.3-2390.2***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pivot: 2345.9<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support: 2339.2-2341.2**, 2333.8-2335.5**, 2322.5-2325.1***, 2304.6-1212.9***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Silver (July)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 32.41-32.55***, 32.72-32.75***, 34.12***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pivot: 32.05-32.19<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support: 31.89**, 31.59-31.67***, 31.37-31.42***, 31.10-31.15***, 30.83-30.92**, 30.50-30.56***, 30.19-30.27****<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Micro Bitcoin (May)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 68,455, down 1,020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bias: Neutral\/Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 68,930-69,575***, 70,280-70,435**, 70,840-71,000***, 72,340-72,570<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pivot: 68,250<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support: 67,100-67,585**, 66,280-66,535****, 65,445**, 64,622-64,865***, 61,835-62,801***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted May 29, 2024 – Managing the Risk-Off Tone<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Equity indices and metals are lower, while the U.S. Dollar and yields are higher. A roadmap to manage the risk-off tone.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,17,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[1056,169,1685,2921,618],"contributors-categories":[13588],"class_list":{"0":"post-207299","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-commodities","7":"category-futures","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-crude-oil","16":"tag-futures","17":"tag-macro","18":"tag-metals","19":"tag-risk","20":"contributors-categories-blue-line-futures"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nManaging the Risk-Off Tone | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Equity indices and metals are lower, while the U.S. Dollar and yields are higher. 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