{"id":207128,"date":"2024-05-23T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-23T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=207128"},"modified":"2024-05-24T14:34:19","modified_gmt":"2024-05-24T18:34:19","slug":"nvidia-the-markets-atlas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nvidia-the-markets-atlas\/","title":{"rendered":"Nvidia \u2013 The Market\u2019s Atlas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After discussing Nvidia\u2019s (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"NVDA\">NVDA<\/span>) <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/vix-an-umbrella-in-a-drought-is-nvda-a-rain-cloud\/\">outsized role<\/a> in the <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/why-did-vix-close-at-long-term-lows-last-week\/\">market\u2019s psyche<\/a> in the lead-up to its <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/its-nvdas-day-in-nvdas-market\/\">earnings report<\/a>, it seems prudent to offer a final follow-up amidst the stock\u2019s latest post-earnings rally.&nbsp; Quite frankly, if you told me that NVDA would be up over 10% by midday while the S&amp;P 500 (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"SPX\">SPX<\/span>) is up only slightly, I would have thought that impossible.&nbsp; Like the mythical Titan, NVDA is the Atlas holding up the broader market.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The results from NVDA offered the usual \u2013 raising guidance after beating last quarter\u2019s raised guidance.&nbsp; This is becoming habit for them, but it is important to remember just how wild of a run that they are on.&nbsp; Revenues are up over 2.5X on a year-over-year basis, causing EPS to be up over fourfold in that time.&nbsp; The rises are less eye-popping on a quarter-over-quarter basis, but let\u2019s keep in mind that 18% growth in a quarter is still quite, quite impressive.&nbsp; Management confirmed that there is no apparent slowdown in the demand for the chips that power artificial intelligence. Throw in the magic phrase \u201cstock split\u201d, and we have the rally that we see this morning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(A quick digression about stock splits.&nbsp; It is the stock market\u2019s way of making change, in NVDA\u2019s case ten $1 bills for a $10.&nbsp; There may be additional utility for having small bills, but how much?&nbsp; Splits do make expensive stocks more affordable, increasing access for small investors.&nbsp; But in an era where fractional shares are readily available and traders large and small utilize options for exposure \u2013 and when NVDA is already the perennially most active stock and option on the IBKR platform \u2013 it seems more cosmetic than a measure that creates demand.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NVDA\u2019s rally is helping lead other AI-related stocks higher.&nbsp; We see the PHLX Semiconductor Index (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"SOX\">SOX<\/span>) up over 1%, for example.&nbsp; But the rally is hardly uniform.&nbsp; More components of SOX are down than up as I write this, which coincides with decliners outpacing advancers in the broad market by a wide margin.&nbsp; I need to wonder whether NVDA was a \u201cbuy the rumor, sell the news\u201d event for the market as a whole.&nbsp; I also shudder to think what might have transpired if NVDA was a disappointment \u2013 or even just \u201cin-line.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The bond market set the dour mood that we see across much of the market.&nbsp; Yields are about 6-7 basis points higher across the curve, pushing 2-year yields toward 4.94% and 10-years to 4.48%.&nbsp; The key 5% and 4.5% levels are now in play.&nbsp; The proximate cause was a series of PMI reports from S&amp;P Global.&nbsp; The Manufacturing, Services, and Composite results were all well above expectations.&nbsp; Coming on the back of yesterday\u2019s \u201chigher for longer\u201d Fed Minutes, bond traders were in no mood to hear about a strengthening economy.&nbsp; In theory, a stronger economy should be good for companies, and thus stocks, but because we are all so obsessed with the Federal Reserve and other central bank policy makers, we see most stocks trending lower as bond prices fall.&nbsp; Volatility measures, as is their <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/vix-an-umbrella-in-a-drought-is-nvda-a-rain-cloud\/\">recent wont<\/a>, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/why-did-vix-close-at-long-term-lows-last-week\/\">seem unperturbed<\/a>, however.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our conclusion to yesterday\u2019s piece <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/its-nvdas-day-in-nvdas-market\/\">now seems overblown<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>If today\u2019s report from NVDA brings good news, then we might be off to the races once again.&nbsp; If not, buckle up.&nbsp; No pressure Mr. Huang\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NVDA\u2019s stock is off the races, even if my implication was that it would extend to the markets as a whole.&nbsp; But, Atlas-like, NVDA is indeed holding up major market indices.&nbsp; Good thing that Atlas didn\u2019t shrug yesterday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After discussing Nvidia\u2019s (NVDA) outsized role in the market\u2019s psyche in the lead-up to its earnings report, it seems prudent to offer a final follow-up amidst the stock\u2019s latest post-earnings rally. Today, like the mythical Titan, NVDA is the Atlas holding up the broader market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":207129,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[267,8235,11838],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-207128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-earnings","tag-nvidia","tag-stock-market-outlook","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/graphics-card-nvidia-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/207128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=207128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/207128\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/207129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=207128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=207128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=207128"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=207128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}