{"id":206733,"date":"2024-05-15T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-15T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=206733"},"modified":"2024-05-29T14:12:13","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T18:12:13","slug":"not-buying-in-stores-but-in-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/not-buying-in-stores-but-in-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Not Buying in Stores, But in Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When good news is good news AND bad news is good news, that\u2019s the sign that momentum rules.&nbsp; This morning we got a bit of both simultaneously and markets love it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the good news front, CPI was indeed modestly market friendly.&nbsp; The headline reading on a month-over-month basis rose 0.3%, better than the 0.4% consensus.&nbsp; The core reading was as expected at 0.3%.&nbsp; Both were below last month\u2019s 0.4% readings.&nbsp; No matter how we annualize them, both remain above the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target, but the move is a step in the correct direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retail sales, however, stunk.&nbsp; The headline number came in flat, well below the 0.4% rise that was expected.&nbsp; The Control Group also fell well short, with a decline of -0.3% when a rise of 0.1% was expected.&nbsp; People seem to be keeping their wallets firmly in their pockets, which fits with some of the prior data and the commentary that we heard from a wide range of consumer-facing companies.&nbsp; (We\u2019ll learn quite a bit more tomorrow when Walmart (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"WMT\">WMT<\/span>) reports earnings.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These numbers are clearly bond-market friendly.&nbsp; Tamer inflation and a tepid economy are catnip to a bond investor, and rates reacted accordingly.&nbsp; We see yields down by 6-9 basis points throughout the curve, an understandable reaction.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stocks took the lower yields as a good sign.&nbsp; Lower yields should of course help stock prices, and they are today.&nbsp; But consider the counterfactual.&nbsp; If retail sales had been above consensus, we could easily foresee stock traders celebrating the strong economy while overlooking the bond market.&nbsp; Heads I win, tails I win.&nbsp; That\u2019s a hallmark of a momentum-driven, risk-on market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ve seen signs that risk is firmly on.&nbsp; Low quality stocks, of which meme stocks are the extreme example, don\u2019t rally in risk-off markets.&nbsp; We wrote about the return of that phenomenon <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/attack-of-the-memes-day-2\/\">over the past<\/a> <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/the-markets-prion-disease-returns\/\">two days<\/a>.&nbsp; And while <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/the-markets-prion-disease-returns\/\">we noted<\/a> that \u201c<em>the half-life of these flourishes seems to be shrinking\u201d,<\/em> today\u2019s pullback in GameStop (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"GME\">GME<\/span>), <span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"AMC\">AMC<\/span>, and others hardly means that traders\u2019 risk appetites have changed.&nbsp; We wouldn\u2019t see bitcoin rise by more than 5% if people suddenly became more risk averse.&nbsp; The Russell 2000 (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"RTY\">RTY<\/span>) wouldn\u2019t be the best performing major index if people suddenly became more risk averse \u2013 even if it is disproportionately helped by 10% rallies in its two largest components, Super Micro Computer (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"SMCI\">SMCI<\/span>) and MicroStrategy (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"MSTR\">MSTR<\/span>).&nbsp; Both are highly speculative and volatile, so investors should enjoy it while they remain in the index.<a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some are saying that this month\u2019s strength invalidates the notion of \u201csell in May.\u201d\u00a0 Yet we really can\u2019t assert that the vague seasonal guidance is truly wrong.\u00a0 While this is a very difficult tape to fight, we won\u2019t know for some time whether this proved to be a time to chase a rising market or instead to sell into strength.\u00a0 There are plenty of measures that suggest that equities are far closer to being overvalued rather than cheap.\u00a0 But for now, most are loath to fight the tape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> Both are likely to leave RTY next month.&nbsp; It is incredibly odd to have SMCI in both the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and RTY simultaneously.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When good news is good news AND bad news is good news, that\u2019s the sign that momentum rules.\u00a0 This morning we got a bit of both simultaneously and markets love it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":190956,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[217,77,570,44],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-206733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-cpi","tag-fed","tag-inflation","tag-stocks","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/options-trading-call-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206733","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=206733"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206733\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/190956"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=206733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=206733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=206733"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=206733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}