{"id":206507,"date":"2024-05-13T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-13T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=206507"},"modified":"2024-05-14T09:58:01","modified_gmt":"2024-05-14T13:58:01","slug":"the-markets-prion-disease-returns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/the-markets-prion-disease-returns\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market\u2019s Prion Disease Returns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Prion diseases, of which \u201cmad cow\u201d is the best known, are thankfully quite rare in humans.&nbsp; However, for better or worse, the market\u2019s version \u2013 the meme stock trade &#8212; recurs periodically.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I type this, GameStop (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"GME\">GME<\/span>) is up about 70% today and several other speculative darlings are showing double-digit gains.&nbsp; Why?&nbsp; Because a popular meme account posted a cryptic message on X (fka Twitter) after three years of silence.&nbsp; The crazy part is that within the cadre of traders who get involved in these names, this makes perfect sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It makes even more sense if we look at how GME options traded during the past weeks.&nbsp;&nbsp; These options are normally active, but there were notable increases in the volumes and open interest of upside call options expiring this Friday over recent sessions.&nbsp; Something started brewing late last month, and it has continued through today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"573\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-12-1100x573.png\" alt=\"GME Prices, volumes and open interests for selected call options expiring May 17, 2024\" class=\"wp-image-206509 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-12-1100x573.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-12-700x365.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-12-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-12-768x400.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture1-12.png 1171w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/573;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Sources: Interactive Brokers, Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be fair, it is typical for volumes and open interests to increase as the days progress.&nbsp; The progress that we saw in the $20 calls is relatively normal, especially for a stock that had been steadily rising during the time period shown.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gme-3-weeks-10-minute-candles\"><strong><em>GME 3-Weeks, 10-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"496\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture2-7-1100x496.png\" alt=\"GME 3-Weeks, 10-Minute Candles\" class=\"wp-image-206510 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture2-7-1100x496.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture2-7-700x316.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture2-7-300x135.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture2-7-768x346.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/Picture2-7.png 1474w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/496;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stealth rally anyone?&nbsp; The stock was already up about 70% in the three weeks before today.&nbsp; But that uptrend doesn\u2019t fully explain why we saw such an explosion in open interest in options that would require another similar sized move during this week to pay off.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A suspicious person might wonder why \u201cRoaring Kitty\u201d chose to return to social media today.&nbsp; Given my past experience in analyzing the periodic bouts of meme stock activity, consider me suspicious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In August 2022, there was a huge run-up in Bed, Bath &amp; Beyond shares (the symbol was BBBY \u2013 it no longer exists).&nbsp; The stock rallied sharply on a filing showing big purchases by then-insider Ryan Cohen \u2013 not coincidentally, the Chairman, President, and CEO of GME \u2013 and then fell sharply when it was revealed that he sold into the run-up.&nbsp; We wrote two pieces explaining the activity, entitled \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/if-you-cant-spot-the-sucker\/\">If You Can\u2019t Spot the Sucker\u2026<\/a>\u201d and \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/if-you-cant-spot-the-sucker-part-2\/?query=ryan%20cohen&amp;query_id=f5d5f58f68a760571506198cda145aff&amp;index=prod_ibkrcampus_en&amp;user_token=anonymous-ab2cddb6-49e7-4567-a8d5-7379570809cb\">If You Can\u2019t Spot the Sucker: Part 2<\/a>\u201d.&nbsp; What occurred was legal, if unsavory.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m sorry, but I can\u2019t shake the feeling that something similar is occurring today, except that a social media darling is under no obligation to file insider activity with the SEC \u2013 he is not an insider.&nbsp; In both cases, nothing specific was said about the stocks.&nbsp; The SEC filings in BBBY were boilerplate, and the social media post literally had no words.&nbsp;&nbsp; So, it\u2019s probably all legal, but someone played this beautifully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also in August 2022, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/recycling-the-playbook\/?query=half%20life%20of%20meme&amp;query_id=27129ce460b6bc3803b246fcc7d6898d&amp;index=prod_ibkrcampus_en&amp;user_token=anonymous-ab2cddb6-49e7-4567-a8d5-7379570809cb\">we wrote the following<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cWe noted during a previous meme stock bloom that the half-life of these flourishes seems to be shrinking.&nbsp; If you participate in these period[ic] rallies and trade them profitably, congratulations.&nbsp; If you notice the eruptions only after they are in full flourish, please be careful.\u201d&nbsp; This was a profitable play for many and treacherous for many more.&nbsp; But it has returned once again, only with shorter opportunities for outsized profits.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Truthfully, I have no idea how long this flurry will last.&nbsp; I\u2019ll guess it will be in play longer than the two-day wonder in <span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"BBBY\">BBBY<\/span> that we wrote about, since there will be no filings to tell us when those who catalyzed the move have sold.&nbsp;&nbsp; If you caught the move early, congratulations.&nbsp; If you\u2019re jumping in now, when literally nothing has changed regarding the fundamentals of GME, <span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"AMC\">AMC<\/span>, <span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"KOSS\">KOSS<\/span> and others, remember the adage, \u201cif you can\u2019t spot the sucker at the poker table, it\u2019s probably you.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prion diseases, of which \u201cmad cow\u201d is the best known, are thankfully quite rare in humans.\u00a0 However, for better or worse, the market\u2019s version \u2013 the meme stock trade &#8212; recurs periodically.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":203890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[3351,9548],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-206507","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-gamestop","16":"tag-meme-stocks","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 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